MODEL VERDICT
Broadridge Financial Solutions, Inc. (BR)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.73 | $155.25 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.73 | $155.07 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.73 | $162.92 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.73 | $160.83 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $151.12 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 10 analyst estimates | $193.46 | +24.6% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 10 industry peers | $216.08 | +39.2% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 10 industry peers | $200.94 | +29.4% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 10 industry peers | $163.45 | +5.3% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 10 industry peers | $185.33 | +19.4% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 10 industry peers | $172.72 | +11.3% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 9 industry peers | $244.35 | +57.4% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 10 industry peers | $264.22 | +70.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 10 industry peers | $256.86 | +65.4% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 10 industry peers | $200.90 | +29.4% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 10 industry peers | $162.20 | +4.5% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $226.47 | +45.9% | 100% | 94 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 18× | 20× | 22× (Current) | 24× | 26× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (5%) | $134 | $149 | $164 | $179 | $194 |
| Conservative (8%) | $138 | $153 | $169 | $184 | $200 |
| Base Case (12.4%) | $144 | $160 | $176 | $192 | $207 |
| Bull Case (17%) | $149 | $166 | $182 | $199 | $216 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 35.26 | 38.58 | 29.48 | 39.32 | 4.55 |
| EV/EBIT | 28.97 | 29.39 | 24.32 | 37.51 | 4.65 |
| EV/EBITDA | 19.69 | 20.20 | 16.13 | 25.12 | 3.05 |
| P/FCF | 33.14 | 32.73 | 24.99 | 42.91 | 6.77 |
| P/FFO | 21.34 | 22.90 | 15.85 | 24.41 | 3.04 |
| P/AFFO | 23.64 | 24.97 | 17.09 | 27.56 | 3.69 |
| P/B Ratio | 11.40 | 11.90 | 8.28 | 13.31 | 1.81 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.78 | 3.96 | 2.78 | 4.31 | 0.53 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates BR's fair value at $226.47 vs the current price of $155.25, implying +45.9% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 94/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $226.47 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $196.15 (P10) to $240.80 (P90), with a median of $218.39.
BR's current P/E of 21.9x compares to the industry median of 28.3x (10 peers in the group). This represents a -22.7% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 35.3x over 7 years. Signal: Discount.
24 analysts cover BR with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $239.60 (range: $213.00 — $257.00), implying +54.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (15), Hold (9), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 94/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (15), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 15.0% is 4.3 percentage points above the 7-year average (10.7%), with a Z-score of +5.1σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$178. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that BR's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +5.1σ, meaning margins are 5.1 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (10.7%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1500.0% to approximately $178. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.