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Broadridge Financial Solutions, Inc. (BR) Intrinsic Value

DCF-based fair value calculation with Bear, Base, and Bull scenarios

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Broadridge Financial Solutions, Inc. (BR)

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Intrinsic Value (DCF)

Current$219.36
→
Intrinsic$200.79
-8%
$129.17$200.79$336.84
Market implies 18% growth for 5 years
BR appears fairly valued — current price aligns with our DCF estimate.
At $219, the market prices in continued high-teens cash flow growth (18%) — likely reflecting buybacks, margin stability, and ecosystem strength.
Range: Bear $129 → Bull $337. Current price implies expectations above the base case, closer to bull expectations.
Discount ↓Growth →12%14%16%18%
8%$248$271$296$323
10%$168$184$201$219
12%$123$135$148$162
14%$95$105$115$125

Bull Case

  • Bull case ($337) offers 54% upside at 19% growth, 9% discount

Bear Case

  • Bear case ($129) implies 41% downside at 13% growth, 12% discount
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection

Year 1$1.23B
Year 2$1.43B
Year 3$1.66B
Year 4$1.92B
Year 5$2.23B
Terminal$32.87B

📐 Model Inputs

Growth Rate16.2%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$1.06BTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
ℹ️

DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Is BR stock undervalued or overvalued?
🟡 FAIRLY VALUED

BR trades at $219.36, within 10% of our $200.79 intrinsic value estimate. At 10.0% WACC and 16.2% FCF growth, the market is pricing in assumptions roughly aligned with the 5-year historical CAGR. The valuation range spans $127.78 (bear) to $305.35 (bull).

What is BR's intrinsic value?

Using a 5-year DCF model: Base FCF of $1.06B, projected at 16.2% 5Y CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth), discounted at 10.0% WACC, with 3.0% terminal growth. Terminal value calculated via Gordon Growth Model: TV = FCF₅ × (1+g) / (WACC−g). After deducting $2.90B net debt and dividing by 0.12B shares: Bear $127.78 | Base $200.79 | Bull $305.35. Current price $219.36 implies -9% to base case.

How is BR's fair value calculated?

DCF Methodology:

① Project FCF years 1-5 using 16.2% growth derived from 5-year historical CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth, with 8% floor and 25% cap).

② Calculate terminal value at year 5 using perpetuity growth model with g=3.0%.

③ Discount all cash flows to PV using WACC=10.0%.

④ Sum PV of explicit period + PV of terminal value = Enterprise Value ($26.65B).

⑤ Subtract net debt, divide by shares outstanding.

Sensitivity analysis available above—adjust WACC ±2% or growth ±3% to stress-test the valuation. Implied EV/FCF multiple: 25.2x.