MODEL VERDICT
BellRing Brands, Inc. (BRBR)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $17.20 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $16.18 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $16.14 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $15.95 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $15.01 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 11 analyst estimates | $26.59 | +54.6% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 10 industry peers | $14.68 | -14.7% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 10 industry peers | $26.66 | +55.0% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 10 industry peers | $22.70 | +32.0% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 10 industry peers | $28.04 | +63.0% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 10 industry peers | $37.58 | +118.5% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 11 industry peers | $23.04 | +34.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 11 industry peers | $17.17 | -0.2% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 10 industry peers | $25.77 | +49.8% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 10 industry peers | $22.43 | +30.4% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $30.95 | +80.0% | 100% | 78 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 6× | 8× | 10× (Current) | 12× | 14× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $10 | $14 | $17 | $21 | $24 |
| Conservative (5%) | $11 | $14 | $18 | $21 | $25 |
| Base Case (-7.9%) | $9 | $12 | $15 | $19 | $22 |
| Bull Case (-11%) | $9 | $12 | $15 | $18 | $21 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 21.20 | 15.91 | 6.82 | 45.06 | 15.50 |
| EV/EBIT | 16.52 | 12.48 | 4.93 | 28.71 | 9.61 |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.58 | 11.86 | 4.44 | 26.14 | 8.85 |
| P/FCF | 43.37 | 13.42 | 5.02 | 181.08 | 62.92 |
| P/FFO | 22.99 | 19.68 | 5.66 | 38.35 | 12.66 |
| P/AFFO | 23.39 | 20.56 | 5.78 | 38.71 | 12.72 |
| Div Yield | 0.06 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.12 | 0.05 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.33 | 1.48 | 0.90 | 4.99 | 1.74 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates BRBR's fair value at $30.95 vs the current price of $17.20, implying +80.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 78/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $30.95 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $23.23 (P10) to $44.18 (P90), with a median of $31.88.
BRBR's current P/E of 10.2x compares to the industry median of 15.9x (10 peers in the group). This represents a -35.5% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 21.2x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
20 analysts cover BRBR with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $32.10 (range: $22.00 — $48.00), implying +86.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (15), Hold (5), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 78/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that BRBR's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -1.6σ, meaning margins are 1.6 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (11.1%), the model estimates fair value drops by 19080.0% to approximately $50. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.