MODEL VERDICT
Brady Corporation (BRC)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $82.16 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.31 | $80.70 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.28 | $84.20 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.28 | $82.80 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.28 | $83.77 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $72.49 | -11.8% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $76.85 | -6.5% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $69.60 | -15.3% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 6 industry peers | $52.36 | -36.3% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $76.55 | -6.8% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 6 industry peers | $76.03 | -7.5% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 4 industry peers | $96.61 | +17.6% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $62.87 | -23.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $44.65 | -45.7% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $65.10 | -20.8% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 6 industry peers | $50.02 | -39.1% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $76.06 | -7.4% | 100% | 94 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 17× | 19× | 21× (Current) | 23× | 25× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (5%) | $70 | $78 | $87 | $95 | $103 |
| Conservative (9%) | $72 | $81 | $89 | $98 | $106 |
| Base Case (13.2%) | $75 | $84 | $93 | $102 | $111 |
| Bull Case (18%) | $79 | $88 | $97 | $106 | $115 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 20.19 | 19.99 | 16.24 | 25.03 | 3.35 |
| EV/EBIT | 15.12 | 15.52 | 12.46 | 18.46 | 2.24 |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.24 | 13.54 | 10.77 | 15.17 | 1.81 |
| P/FCF | 22.41 | 23.60 | 15.41 | 32.30 | 5.85 |
| P/FFO | 16.87 | 16.39 | 13.21 | 20.70 | 2.79 |
| P/TBV | 8.75 | 8.71 | 6.62 | 11.01 | 1.43 |
| P/AFFO | 21.25 | 22.08 | 15.57 | 25.91 | 4.10 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.13 | 3.16 | 2.67 | 3.59 | 0.31 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.42 | 2.49 | 1.87 | 2.67 | 0.29 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates BRC's fair value at $76.06 vs the current price of $82.16, implying -7.4% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 94/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $76.06 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $62.74 (P10) to $81.02 (P90), with a median of $71.78.
BRC's current P/E of 21.0x compares to the industry median of 17.8x (6 peers in the group). This represents a +18.1% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 20.2x over 7 years. Signal: Slight Premium.
10 analysts cover BRC with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is N/A (range: N/A — N/A), implying N/A upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (2), Hold (7), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 94/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: BRC trades at the 3750th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (20.2×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that BRC's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.4σ, meaning margins are 0.4 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (15.6%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1570.0% to approximately $95. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.