Black Rock Coffee Bar, Inc. Class A Common Stock (BRCB)
Valuation Overview•Is Black Rock Coffee Bar, Inc. Class A Common Stock Overvalued or Undervalued?
Trading at a relative discount to industry peers, suggesting a specific risk premium is applied.
Fragile underlying quality score of 31/100; weak margins or elevated debt leverage warrant caution.
Analysts remain bullish, forecasting further upside expansion with consensus targets suggesting solid gains.
Verdict: Mixed fundamental profile with offsetting strengths and weaknesses.
Wall Street is highly bullish, projecting significant upside alongside robust expected earnings growth. This is paired with healthy capital returns, driven predominantly by aggressive share repurchases.
Returns capital exclusively via buybacks — no active dividend
BRCB struggles with subpar profitability and pressured margins. However, this is severely offset by a highly leveraged balance sheet (Debt/EBITDA > 4.0x) and elevated financial risk.
The company maintains stable top-line performance paired with stable bottom-line earnings. However, profitability remains a major concern with severely compressed operating margins (2.3%).
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $55.5M | +24.5% | — | — | — | |
| EBITDA | $7.3M | — | — | — | — | |
| Net Income | $378K | +98.4% | — | — | — | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $0.02 | +98.6% | — | — | — | |
| Free Cash Flow | -$9.4M | -240.0% | — | — | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 30.9% | 41.5% | 41.5% | 41.5% |
| Operating Margin | 2.3% | 0.8% | 0.8% | 0.8% |
| Net Margin | 0.6% | -3.0% | -3.0% | -3.0% |
| FCF Margin | -9.4% | -10.2% | -10.2% | -10.2% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26Latest | $0.04 | $0.02 | -50.0% | ||
| Q1'26 | $0.03 | $0.04 | +33.3% | ||
| Q4'25 | $-0.24 | $-0.05 | +79.2% |
Total return is -72.6% (1Y), lagging the benchmark by -93.5%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | -66.2% | -73.6% | — |
| 1Y | -72.6% | -93.5% | — |
| 3YCAGR | -35.1% | -55.6% | — |
| 5YCAGR | -22.8% | -35.2% | — |
| 10YCAGR | -12.2% | -26.3% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 30.6x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about Black Rock Coffee Bar, Inc. Class A Common Stock (BRCB) valuation, health, and returns.
Based on peer relative multiples, Black Rock Coffee Bar, Inc. Class A Common Stock appears Cheap versus peers compared to industry peers.
Black Rock Coffee Bar, Inc. Class A Common Stock has multiple valuation anchors: Peer Relative Fair Value: $10.56 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $16.50 (implying +103.0% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
Black Rock Coffee Bar, Inc. Class A Common Stock displays weak financial health with a composite quality score of 31/100, supported by a Altman Z-Score of 0.4 (distress zone), Piotroski F-Score of 5/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 1.9%.
Black Rock Coffee Bar, Inc. Class A Common Stock returns capital via buybacks instead of dividends, carrying a 2.4% buyback yield and reducing outstanding shares by +11.5% in the last 12 months.
Black Rock Coffee Bar, Inc. Class A Common Stock's current growth trajectory is Stable. The company achieved +24.5% 1Y revenue growth and +98.6% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of N/A.
Wall Street consensus is Buy based on 4 analysts. The consensus price target represents a +103.0% change from current levels.
Investment risks for Black Rock Coffee Bar, Inc. Class A Common Stock include: -77.8% 1-year max drawdown, high beta (1.98x market volatility), elevated distress risk. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 1.98x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.