MODEL VERDICT
Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK-A)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $710300.00 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $705259.00 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $712480.00 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $711234.50 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $720002.90 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 9 industry peers | $590353.65 | -16.9% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 9 industry peers | $938016.25 | +32.1% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $372652.81 | -47.5% | 15% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Earnings Yield 9 industry peers | $590354.11 | -16.9% | 8% | B | Data |
| Price / Tangible Book 7 bank peers | $1014981.12 | +42.9% | 5% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $1122535.18 | +58.0% | 4% | B | Model Driven |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $1051410.28 | +48.0% | 3% | A- | Peer Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $671329.56 | -5.5% | 100% | 85 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 11× | 13× | 15× (Current) | 17× | 19× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (5%) | $536348 | $633866 | $731384 | $828902 | $926420 |
| Conservative (8%) | $551446 | $651708 | $751971 | $852234 | $952497 |
| Base Case (11.8%) | $572632 | $676747 | $780862 | $884976 | $989091 |
| Bull Case (16%) | $593632 | $701565 | $809498 | $917431 | $1025364 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 10.47 | 9.59 | 6.82 | 16.21 | 3.66 |
| EV/EBIT | 9.70 | 8.12 | 5.63 | 19.69 | 5.24 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.73 | 7.75 | 5.38 | 16.06 | 3.95 |
| P/FCF | 36.69 | 26.40 | 20.72 | 84.29 | 22.21 |
| P/FFO | 8.93 | 8.42 | 6.07 | 13.49 | 2.81 |
| P/TBV | 1.75 | 1.76 | 1.60 | 1.84 | 0.09 |
| P/AFFO | 11.30 | 10.31 | 7.35 | 18.24 | 4.22 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.38 | 1.38 | 1.23 | 1.51 | 0.11 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.43 | 2.45 | 2.11 | 2.92 | 0.28 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 20 valuation metrics, the model estimates BRK-A's fair value at $671329.56 vs the current price of $710300.00, implying -5.5% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 85/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $671329.56 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $546034.05 (P10) to $801743.90 (P90), with a median of $669546.33.
BRK-A's current P/E of 15.3x compares to the industry median of 12.7x (9 peers in the group). This represents a +20.3% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 10.5x over 6 years. Signal: Premium.
10 analysts cover BRK-A with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is N/A (range: N/A — N/A), implying N/A upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (4), Hold (5), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 85/100, based on: data completeness (25), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: BRK-A trades at the 6110th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (10.5×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that BRK-A's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.2σ, meaning margins are 0.2 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (20.4%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2210.0% to approximately $552999. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.