MODEL VERDICT
Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK-B)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $473.16 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $469.32 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $474.48 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $474.09 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $479.90 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 8 industry peers | $369.18 | -22.0% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 8 industry peers | $583.06 | +23.2% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $236.67 | -50.0% | 15% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Earnings Yield 8 industry peers | $367.58 | -22.3% | 8% | B | Data |
| Price / Tangible Book 6 bank peers | $566.85 | +19.8% | 5% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $501.54 | +6.0% | 4% | B | Model Driven |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $338.01 | -28.6% | 3% | A- | Peer Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $401.79 | -15.1% | 100% | 88 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 11× | 13× | 15× (Current) | 17× | 19× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (5%) | $358 | $423 | $488 | $553 | $618 |
| Conservative (8%) | $368 | $434 | $501 | $568 | $635 |
| Base Case (11.8%) | $382 | $451 | $521 | $590 | $659 |
| Bull Case (16%) | $396 | $468 | $540 | $612 | $684 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 10.44 | 9.52 | 6.82 | 16.19 | 3.67 |
| EV/EBIT | 9.70 | 8.12 | 5.63 | 19.68 | 5.24 |
| EV/EBITDA | 9.67 | 8.03 | 5.32 | 16.04 | 4.71 |
| P/FCF | 36.55 | 26.02 | 20.72 | 84.15 | 22.21 |
| P/FFO | 8.91 | 8.36 | 6.07 | 13.48 | 2.82 |
| P/TBV | 1.74 | 1.76 | 1.60 | 1.84 | 0.09 |
| P/AFFO | 11.27 | 10.24 | 7.35 | 18.22 | 4.23 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.37 | 1.36 | 1.23 | 1.51 | 0.10 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.25 | 1.94 | 1.70 | 2.92 | 0.55 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 20 valuation metrics, the model estimates BRK-B's fair value at $401.79 vs the current price of $473.16, implying -15.1% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 88/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $401.79 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $328.67 (P10) to $474.83 (P90), with a median of $401.19.
BRK-B's current P/E of 15.2x compares to the industry median of 11.9x (8 peers in the group). This represents a +28.2% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 10.4x over 6 years. Signal: Premium.
10 analysts cover BRK-B with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $465.50 (range: $450.00 — $481.00), implying -1.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (4), Hold (6), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 88/100, based on: data completeness (25), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: BRK-B trades at the 5560th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (10.4×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that BRK-B's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.1σ, meaning margins are 0.1 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (17.0%), the model estimates fair value drops by 3530.0% to approximately $306. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.