MODEL VERDICT
Berry Corporation (BRY) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA 61 industry peers | $8.97 | +175.2% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 49 industry peers | $2.92 | -10.4% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 42 industry peers | $17.02 | +422.1% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 53 industry peers | $13.44 | +312.3% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 43 industry peers | $17.38 | +433.1% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 62 industry peers | $14.78 | +353.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 63 industry peers | $15.26 | +368.1% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 49 industry peers | $2.92 | -10.4% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 43 industry peers | $17.66 | +441.7% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $10.09 | +209.6% | 100% | 86 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 9× | 11× | 13× (Current) | 15× | 17× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $2 | $3 | $3 | $4 | $4 |
| Conservative (5%) | $2 | $3 | $3 | $4 | $4 |
| Base Case (-14.0%) | $2 | $2 | $3 | $3 | $4 |
| Bull Case (-19%) | $2 | $2 | $3 | $3 | $3 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 11.01 | 14.65 | 2.64 | 17.79 | 7.36 |
| EV/EBIT | 16.99 | 10.88 | 4.22 | 59.13 | 20.96 |
| EV/EBITDA | 3.04 | 2.95 | 2.27 | 4.05 | 0.74 |
| P/FCF | 12.43 | 3.18 | 2.57 | 48.80 | 20.35 |
| P/FFO | 3.10 | 2.46 | 1.62 | 5.24 | 1.68 |
| P/TBV | 0.67 | 0.72 | 0.41 | 0.97 | 0.22 |
| P/AFFO | 4.13 | 4.37 | 2.60 | 5.27 | 1.04 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.67 | 0.72 | 0.41 | 0.97 | 0.22 |
| Div Yield | 0.09 | 0.07 | 0.01 | 0.17 | 0.07 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.79 | 0.72 | 0.41 | 1.29 | 0.29 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 23 valuation metrics, the model estimates BRY's fair value at $10.09 vs the current price of $3.26, implying +209.6% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 86/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $10.09 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $8.24 (P10) to $15.84 (P90), with a median of $11.60.
BRY's current P/E of 13.0x compares to the industry median of 11.7x (49 peers in the group). This represents a +11.5% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 11.0x over 5 years. Signal: Slight Premium.
24 analysts cover BRY with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $7.00 (range: $7.00 — $7.00), implying +114.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (6), Hold (16), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 86/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: BRY trades at the 5920th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (11.0×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for BRY.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.