MODEL VERDICT
Canadian Natural Resources Limited (CNQ) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $43.77 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $42.40 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $40.68 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $39.09 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $32.08 | Below threshold | +22.1% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 44 analyst estimates | $38.38 | -12.3% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 49 industry peers | $39.99 | -8.6% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 43 industry peers | $39.72 | -9.3% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 37 industry peers | $33.16 | -24.2% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 42 industry peers | $74.86 | +71.0% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 38 industry peers | $31.23 | -28.6% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 8 industry peers | $5.14 | -88.3% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 48 industry peers | $38.99 | -10.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 48 industry peers | $35.11 | -19.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 43 industry peers | $39.70 | -9.3% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 37 industry peers | $34.64 | -20.9% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $38.39 | -12.3% | 100% | 93 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 17× | 19× | 21× (Current) | 23× | 25× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $49 | $55 | $61 | $67 | $73 |
| Conservative (5%) | $51 | $57 | $63 | $69 | $75 |
| Base Case (4.7%) | $51 | $57 | $63 | $69 | $75 |
| Bull Case (6%) | $52 | $58 | $64 | $70 | $76 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 8.40 | 7.94 | 5.76 | 11.39 | 2.33 |
| EV/EBIT | 8.25 | 8.22 | 5.22 | 11.56 | 2.40 |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.60 | 4.30 | 3.28 | 7.74 | 1.53 |
| P/FCF | 7.77 | 7.38 | 4.41 | 13.20 | 2.99 |
| P/FFO | 4.22 | 3.73 | 3.45 | 5.22 | 0.81 |
| P/TBV | 1.42 | 1.43 | 0.92 | 1.81 | 0.32 |
| P/AFFO | 6.94 | 7.42 | 4.78 | 9.32 | 1.95 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.42 | 1.43 | 0.92 | 1.81 | 0.32 |
| Div Yield | 0.06 | 0.05 | 0.03 | 0.08 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.58 | 1.63 | 1.27 | 1.85 | 0.22 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates CNQ's fair value at $38.39 vs the current price of $43.77, implying -12.3% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 93/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $38.39 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $32.67 (P10) to $43.78 (P90), with a median of $38.16.
CNQ's current P/E of 21.0x compares to the industry median of 13.9x (43 peers in the group). This represents a +50.8% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 8.4x over 6 years. Signal: High Premium.
37 analysts cover CNQ with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $35.00 (range: $35.00 — $35.00), implying -20.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (27), Hold (9), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 93/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: CNQ trades at the 7210th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (8.4×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that CNQ's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.6σ, meaning margins are 0.6 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (22.7%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2000.0% to approximately $35. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.