MODEL VERDICT
Woodside Energy Group Ltd (WDS) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $20.48 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $19.45 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $18.62 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $18.44 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $15.86 | Pending | +16.8% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 44 analyst estimates | $9.23 | -54.9% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 49 industry peers | $44.84 | +118.9% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 43 industry peers | $19.79 | -3.4% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 42 industry peers | $17.20 | -16.0% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 48 industry peers | $28.77 | +40.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 48 industry peers | $23.90 | +16.7% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 43 industry peers | $19.78 | -3.4% | 2% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $28.35 | +38.4% | 100% | 59 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 10× | 12× | 14× (Current) | 16× | 18× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $15 | $18 | $21 | $24 | $27 |
| Conservative (7%) | $15 | $18 | $21 | $24 | $27 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $16 | $19 | $22 | $25 | $28 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $16 | $19 | $23 | $26 | $29 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 20.34 | 9.66 | 5.68 | 64.97 | 22.85 |
| EV/EBIT | 37.08 | 11.25 | 4.49 | 201.11 | 72.44 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.49 | 4.02 | 3.39 | 11.19 | 2.88 |
| P/FCF | 21.84 | 13.17 | 6.50 | 47.19 | 17.11 |
| P/FFO | 5.65 | 4.93 | 3.58 | 11.22 | 2.87 |
| P/TBV | 1.13 | 1.14 | 0.85 | 1.29 | 0.18 |
| P/AFFO | 44.24 | 25.10 | 6.79 | 105.48 | 43.98 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.05 | 1.09 | 0.75 | 1.29 | 0.21 |
| Div Yield | 0.06 | 0.07 | 0.02 | 0.11 | 0.03 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.01 | 2.30 | 2.19 | 4.62 | 1.12 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 19 valuation metrics, the model estimates WDS's fair value at $28.35 vs the current price of $20.48, implying +38.4% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 59/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $28.35 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $21.52 (P10) to $40.47 (P90), with a median of $29.74.
WDS's current P/E of 14.4x compares to the industry median of 13.9x (43 peers in the group). This represents a +3.5% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 20.3x over 6 years. Signal: Fair Value.
2 analysts cover WDS with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $28.00 (range: $28.00 — $28.00), implying +36.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (0), Hold (2), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 59/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --10 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that WDS's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.1σ, meaning margins are 0.1 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (31.4%), the model estimates fair value drops by 8370.0% to approximately $38. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.