MODEL VERDICT
Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $53.08 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $51.84 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $46.07 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $46.27 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $42.86 | Below threshold | +8.9% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 44 analyst estimates | $16.30 | -69.3% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 49 industry peers | $55.48 | +4.5% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 43 industry peers | $22.44 | -57.7% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 37 industry peers | $35.99 | -32.2% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 42 industry peers | $37.58 | -29.2% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 38 industry peers | $42.34 | -20.2% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 48 industry peers | $58.42 | +10.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 48 industry peers | $43.65 | -17.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 43 industry peers | $22.43 | -57.7% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 37 industry peers | $37.59 | -29.2% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $36.18 | -31.8% | 100% | 80 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 27× | 30× | 33× (Current) | 36× | 39× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $45 | $50 | $55 | $60 | $65 |
| Conservative (7%) | $46 | $51 | $57 | $62 | $67 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $48 | $53 | $58 | $64 | $69 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $49 | $55 | $60 | $66 | $71 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 16.91 | 18.35 | 5.08 | 25.54 | 7.59 |
| EV/EBIT | 16.88 | 10.97 | 5.47 | 49.55 | 16.24 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.81 | 5.41 | 3.77 | 9.36 | 2.18 |
| P/FCF | 11.90 | 10.02 | 3.67 | 33.09 | 9.79 |
| P/FFO | 4.19 | 4.33 | 2.55 | 6.00 | 1.24 |
| P/TBV | 1.39 | 1.37 | 0.86 | 2.10 | 0.46 |
| P/AFFO | 8.58 | 10.31 | 3.47 | 13.64 | 4.58 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.39 | 1.37 | 0.86 | 2.10 | 0.46 |
| Div Yield | 0.05 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.12 | 0.04 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.60 | 1.74 | 0.93 | 2.03 | 0.42 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates OXY's fair value at $36.18 vs the current price of $53.08, implying -31.8% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 80/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $36.18 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $32.23 (P10) to $45.39 (P90), with a median of $38.56.
OXY's current P/E of 33.0x compares to the industry median of 13.9x (43 peers in the group). This represents a +136.5% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 16.9x over 5 years. Signal: High Premium.
52 analysts cover OXY with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $52.00 (range: $38.00 — $67.00), implying -2.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (23), Hold (23), Sell (6), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 80/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: OXY trades at the 8600th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (16.9×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that OXY's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.2σ, meaning margins are 0.2 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 5-year mean (7.0%), the model estimates fair value drops by 6100.0% to approximately $21. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.