MODEL VERDICT
Diamondback Energy, Inc. (FANG) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $174.08 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.39 | $176.01 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.44 | $169.14 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.45 | $164.89 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.34 | $147.41 | Below threshold | +12.6% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 44 analyst estimates | $132.98 | -23.6% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 49 industry peers | $122.27 | -29.8% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 43 industry peers | $79.87 | -54.1% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 37 industry peers | $158.79 | -8.8% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 42 industry peers | $130.14 | -25.2% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 38 industry peers | $144.87 | -16.8% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 48 industry peers | $75.23 | -56.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 48 industry peers | $90.64 | -47.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 43 industry peers | $79.82 | -54.1% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 37 industry peers | $165.84 | -4.7% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $163.55 | -6.0% | 100% | 78 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 26× | 28× | 30× (Current) | 32× | 34× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $155 | $167 | $179 | $191 | $203 |
| Conservative (7%) | $159 | $171 | $183 | $195 | $207 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $164 | $176 | $189 | $202 | $214 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $169 | $182 | $195 | $208 | $221 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 20.61 | 9.75 | 5.56 | 63.60 | 22.29 |
| EV/EBIT | 16.16 | 9.01 | 5.16 | 38.76 | 13.65 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.99 | 5.61 | 3.87 | 9.58 | 1.97 |
| P/FCF | 31.03 | 11.45 | 8.30 | 103.32 | 40.86 |
| P/FFO | 6.10 | 5.68 | 4.21 | 8.98 | 1.59 |
| P/TBV | 1.18 | 1.02 | 0.78 | 1.60 | 0.34 |
| P/AFFO | 50.19 | 14.92 | 11.41 | 159.51 | 72.91 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.18 | 1.02 | 0.78 | 1.60 | 0.34 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.07 | 0.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.05 | 2.89 | 2.52 | 3.84 | 0.44 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates FANG's fair value at $163.55 vs the current price of $174.08, implying -6.0% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 78/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $163.55 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $115.74 (P10) to $235.44 (P90), with a median of $163.98.
FANG's current P/E of 30.4x compares to the industry median of 13.9x (43 peers in the group). This represents a +118.0% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 20.6x over 6 years. Signal: High Premium.
51 analysts cover FANG with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $184.08 (range: $171.00 — $218.00), implying +5.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (45), Hold (5), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 78/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: FANG trades at the 8140th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (20.6×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that FANG's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.3σ, meaning margins are 0.3 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (4.7%), the model estimates fair value drops by 7120.0% to approximately $50. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.