MODEL VERDICT
EOG Resources, Inc. (EOG)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $138.95 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $133.13 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $128.43 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $132.39 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $136.19 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $137.87 | -0.8% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 9 industry peers | $109.92 | -20.9% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 9 industry peers | $109.67 | -21.1% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 9 industry peers | $58.29 | -58.0% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 8 industry peers | $147.02 | +5.8% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 9 industry peers | $63.62 | -54.2% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $102.43 | -26.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $88.80 | -36.1% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 9 industry peers | $109.67 | -21.1% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 9 industry peers | $58.29 | -58.0% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $113.30 | -18.5% | 100% | 87 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 11× | 13× | 15× (Current) | 17× | 19× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $104 | $123 | $142 | $161 | $180 |
| Conservative (7%) | $107 | $126 | $146 | $165 | $184 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $110 | $130 | $150 | $170 | $190 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $114 | $134 | $155 | $176 | $196 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 11.74 | 11.01 | 9.30 | 17.78 | 3.08 |
| EV/EBIT | 9.12 | 8.35 | 7.07 | 13.98 | 2.52 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.44 | 5.56 | 4.86 | 11.31 | 2.25 |
| P/FCF | 15.69 | 13.70 | 10.50 | 27.95 | 5.99 |
| P/FFO | 7.09 | 6.64 | 5.82 | 10.33 | 1.52 |
| P/TBV | 2.27 | 2.34 | 1.42 | 3.07 | 0.51 |
| P/AFFO | 140.77 | 15.06 | 7.39 | 778.66 | 312.52 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.27 | 2.34 | 1.42 | 3.07 | 0.51 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 0.07 | 0.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.79 | 2.87 | 2.51 | 3.05 | 0.21 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates EOG's fair value at $113.30 vs the current price of $138.95, implying -18.5% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 87/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $113.30 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $99.81 (P10) to $124.83 (P90), with a median of $112.25.
EOG's current P/E of 15.3x compares to the industry median of 12.0x (9 peers in the group). This represents a +26.7% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 11.7x over 6 years. Signal: Premium.
66 analysts cover EOG with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $137.93 (range: $110.00 — $177.00), implying -0.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (38), Hold (27), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 87/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: EOG trades at the 4150th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (11.7×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that EOG's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.5σ, meaning margins are 0.5 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (27.0%), the model estimates fair value drops by 580.0% to approximately $131. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.