MODEL VERDICT
Boston Scientific Corporation (BSX)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $56.50 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.49 | $62.07 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $64.23 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $64.61 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $61.79 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 10 analyst estimates | $56.63 | +0.2% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 9 industry peers | $48.30 | -14.5% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 8 industry peers | $54.45 | -3.6% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 11 industry peers | $64.51 | +14.2% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 8 industry peers | $57.96 | +2.6% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 11 industry peers | $62.51 | +10.6% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 13 industry peers | $45.58 | -19.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 13 industry peers | $50.10 | -11.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 8 industry peers | $54.04 | -4.4% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 12 industry peers | $65.89 | +16.6% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $72.65 | +28.6% | 100% | 78 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 25× | 27× | 29× (Current) | 31× | 33× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $50 | $54 | $59 | $63 | $67 |
| Conservative (7%) | $52 | $56 | $60 | $64 | $68 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $53 | $58 | $62 | $66 | $70 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $55 | $59 | $64 | $68 | $73 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 58.94 | 57.86 | 13.57 | 103.77 | 29.51 |
| EV/EBIT | 63.32 | 48.02 | 40.95 | 150.99 | 39.32 |
| EV/EBITDA | 30.65 | 27.61 | 22.70 | 40.95 | 6.69 |
| P/FCF | 49.91 | 46.39 | 38.96 | 72.88 | 10.78 |
| P/FFO | 33.05 | 33.50 | 11.17 | 48.97 | 11.97 |
| P/AFFO | 45.96 | 42.18 | 12.15 | 76.70 | 19.90 |
| P/B Ratio | 4.51 | 4.33 | 3.32 | 6.03 | 1.06 |
| Div Yield | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 6.06 | 5.94 | 5.12 | 7.92 | 1.08 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates BSX's fair value at $72.65 vs the current price of $56.50, implying +28.6% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 78/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $72.65 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $62.90 (P10) to $82.33 (P90), with a median of $72.56.
BSX's current P/E of 29.1x compares to the industry median of 28.1x (8 peers in the group). This represents a +3.8% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 58.9x over 6 years. Signal: Fair Value.
43 analysts cover BSX with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $91.33 (range: $60.00 — $120.00), implying +61.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (39), Hold (3), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 78/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that BSX's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.1σ, meaning margins are 0.1 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (13.2%), the model estimates fair value drops by 8580.0% to approximately $105. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.