MODEL VERDICT
Baytex Energy Corp. (BTE) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $3.84 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $3.77 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $3.47 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $3.56 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.72 | $3.31 | Pending | +8.5% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 44 analyst estimates | $1.44 | -62.5% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 49 industry peers | $9.26 | +141.1% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 43 industry peers | $4.18 | +8.9% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 37 industry peers | $6.80 | +77.1% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 42 industry peers | $7.51 | +95.6% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 38 industry peers | $5.25 | +36.7% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 48 industry peers | $8.72 | +127.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 48 industry peers | $10.15 | +164.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 43 industry peers | $4.18 | +8.9% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 37 industry peers | $7.02 | +82.8% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $5.65 | +47.1% | 100% | 86 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 14× | 16× | 18× (Current) | 20× | 22× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $4 | $5 | $6 | $6 | $7 |
| Conservative (7%) | $4 | $5 | $6 | $6 | $7 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $5 | $5 | $6 | $7 | $7 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $5 | $5 | $6 | $7 | $7 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 4.22 | 2.97 | 1.10 | 8.60 | 3.91 |
| EV/EBIT | 26.45 | 5.53 | 1.77 | 92.98 | 44.42 |
| EV/EBITDA | 3.39 | 2.93 | 2.01 | 6.11 | 1.44 |
| P/FCF | 4.80 | 4.09 | 2.90 | 9.77 | 2.50 |
| P/FFO | 1.73 | 1.51 | 0.84 | 2.87 | 0.82 |
| P/TBV | 0.53 | 0.52 | 0.20 | 0.84 | 0.24 |
| P/AFFO | 3.75 | 3.65 | 1.00 | 6.70 | 2.45 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.53 | 0.52 | 0.20 | 0.84 | 0.24 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.60 | 0.49 | 0.31 | 0.95 | 0.24 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 16 valuation metrics, the model estimates BTE's fair value at $5.65 vs the current price of $3.84, implying +47.1% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 86/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $5.65 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $4.27 (P10) to $7.80 (P90), with a median of $5.66.
BTE's current P/E of 17.5x compares to the industry median of 13.9x (43 peers in the group). This represents a +25.7% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 4.2x over 3 years. Signal: Premium.
16 analysts cover BTE with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is N/A (range: N/A — N/A), implying N/A upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (10), Hold (3), Sell (3), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 86/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: BTE trades at the 6280th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (4.2×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for BTE.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.