MODEL VERDICT
B2Gold Corp. (BTG)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $4.36 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $4.97 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $5.00 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $4.92 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $4.93 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 13 analyst estimates | $7.19 | +65.1% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 13 industry peers | $13.93 | +219.9% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 13 industry peers | $5.26 | +20.8% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 12 industry peers | $0.83 | -80.9% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 13 industry peers | $13.54 | +210.9% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 12 industry peers | $0.64 | -85.3% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 13 industry peers | $10.61 | +143.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 13 industry peers | $11.34 | +160.4% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 13 industry peers | $5.26 | +20.8% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 12 industry peers | $0.83 | -80.9% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $7.62 | +74.9% | 100% | 83 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 12× | 14× | 16× (Current) | 18× | 20× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $3 | $4 | $5 | $5 | $6 |
| Conservative (5%) | $4 | $4 | $5 | $5 | $6 |
| Base Case (-13.8%) | $3 | $3 | $4 | $4 | $5 |
| Bull Case (-19%) | $3 | $3 | $4 | $4 | $5 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 74.92 | 14.35 | 9.49 | 385.37 | 152.11 |
| EV/EBIT | 6.84 | 5.62 | 4.82 | 11.86 | 2.78 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.58 | 4.09 | 3.27 | 27.67 | 8.90 |
| P/FCF | 26.08 | 10.82 | 6.13 | 100.61 | 36.79 |
| P/FFO | 7.04 | 6.95 | 5.22 | 9.31 | 1.47 |
| P/TBV | 1.54 | 1.41 | 1.01 | 2.22 | 0.48 |
| P/AFFO | 11.19 | 10.59 | 8.36 | 14.78 | 2.49 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.54 | 1.41 | 1.01 | 2.22 | 0.48 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.47 | 2.21 | 1.68 | 3.55 | 0.69 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates BTG's fair value at $7.62 vs the current price of $4.36, implying +74.9% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 83/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $7.62 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $5.79 (P10) to $12.05 (P90), with a median of $8.12.
BTG's current P/E of 15.6x compares to the industry median of 18.8x (13 peers in the group). This represents a -17.1% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 74.9x over 6 years. Signal: Discount.
9 analysts cover BTG with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $6.25 (range: $6.00 — $6.50), implying +43.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (5), Hold (2), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 83/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that BTG's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.6σ, meaning margins are 0.6 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (32.0%), the model estimates fair value drops by 107060.0% to approximately $51. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.