MODEL VERDICT
Bitcoin Depot Inc. (BTM)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.14 | $7.29 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / Book 4 industry peers | $0.59 | -91.9% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 1 bank peers | $0.18 | -97.5% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $3.05 | -58.2% | 100% | 45 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBIT | 27.58 | 21.91 | 11.18 | 55.34 | 19.85 |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.83 | 10.97 | 7.88 | 25.48 | 8.11 |
| P/FCF | 20.15 | 21.20 | 9.18 | 29.01 | 8.25 |
| P/B Ratio | 62.47 | 54.56 | 40.23 | 92.61 | 27.07 |
| Div Yield | 0.07 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 0.16 | 0.08 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.84 | 0.80 | 0.41 | 1.35 | 0.44 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 5 valuation metrics, the model estimates BTM's fair value at $3.05 vs the current price of $7.29, implying -58.2% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 45/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $3.05 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%).
BTM's current P/E of -9.0x compares to the industry median of 14.7x (5 peers in the group). This represents a -161.3% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
2 analysts cover BTM with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $29.17 (range: $24.50 — $35.00), implying +300.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (1), Hold (1), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 45/100, based on: data completeness (6), peer quality (22), historical depth (10), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for BTM.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.