MODEL VERDICT
Anheuser-Busch InBev SA/NV (BUD)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.49 | $75.56 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.59 | $72.57 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.54 | $75.76 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.54 | $75.30 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.48 | $75.73 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $53.78 | -28.8% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 4 industry peers | $163.48 | +116.4% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 3 industry peers | $55.63 | -26.4% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 6 industry peers | $68.14 | -9.8% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 4 industry peers | $73.03 | -3.3% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 6 industry peers | $47.18 | -37.6% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 6 industry peers | $64.44 | -14.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 6 industry peers | $85.19 | +12.7% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 3 industry peers | $55.65 | -26.3% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 6 industry peers | $65.78 | -12.9% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $88.54 | +17.2% | 100% | 78 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 22× | 24× | 26× (Current) | 28× | 30× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $64 | $70 | $76 | $82 | $88 |
| Conservative (5%) | $66 | $72 | $78 | $84 | $90 |
| Base Case (-8.8%) | $57 | $63 | $68 | $73 | $78 |
| Bull Case (-12%) | $55 | $60 | $66 | $71 | $76 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 33.98 | 24.85 | 17.51 | 99.87 | 29.42 |
| EV/EBIT | 16.75 | 14.69 | 11.07 | 33.15 | 7.38 |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.12 | 10.63 | 7.77 | 15.44 | 2.40 |
| P/FCF | 15.26 | 15.12 | 9.14 | 20.22 | 3.79 |
| P/FFO | 13.48 | 12.34 | 8.99 | 22.41 | 4.30 |
| P/AFFO | 29.18 | 21.71 | 13.60 | 64.64 | 17.06 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.60 | 1.56 | 1.15 | 1.97 | 0.28 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.06 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.43 | 2.28 | 1.71 | 3.18 | 0.50 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates BUD's fair value at $88.54 vs the current price of $75.56, implying +17.2% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 78/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $88.54 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $78.71 (P10) to $101.71 (P90), with a median of $89.70.
BUD's current P/E of 26.4x compares to the industry median of 19.5x (3 peers in the group). This represents a +35.8% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 34.0x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
45 analysts cover BUD with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $89.00 (range: $82.00 — $100.00), implying +17.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (26), Hold (16), Sell (3), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 78/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that BUD's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.2σ, meaning margins are 0.2 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (9.5%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1640.0% to approximately $88. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.