MODEL VERDICT
Burford Capital Limited (BUR)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $5.20 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $4.88 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $4.96 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $4.73 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $4.37 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 4 industry peers | $8.29 | +59.4% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 5 industry peers | $15.69 | +201.7% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 5 bank peers | $16.32 | +213.8% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 3 industry peers | $2.53 | -51.3% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 4 industry peers | $8.28 | +59.2% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 5 analyst estimates | $9.54 | +83.5% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $12.89 | +148.0% | 100% | 78 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× | 6× | 8× (Current) | 10× | 12× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $3 | $4 | $5 | $7 | $8 |
| Conservative (5%) | $3 | $4 | $6 | $7 | $8 |
| Base Case (-7.4%) | $2 | $4 | $5 | $6 | $7 |
| Bull Case (-10%) | $2 | $4 | $5 | $6 | $7 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 20.16 | 14.03 | 5.69 | 58.21 | 19.21 |
| EV/EBIT | 201.66 | 14.72 | 5.95 | 1135.66 | 457.62 |
| EV/EBITDA | 87.49 | 12.97 | 5.80 | 529.48 | 195.00 |
| P/FFO | 18.49 | 12.81 | 5.57 | 51.09 | 18.51 |
| P/TBV | 1.44 | 1.16 | 0.79 | 3.47 | 0.92 |
| P/AFFO | 18.65 | 12.82 | 5.60 | 51.69 | 18.75 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.33 | 1.08 | 0.75 | 3.08 | 0.80 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 8.71 | 6.58 | 3.22 | 21.39 | 6.02 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates BUR's fair value at $12.89 vs the current price of $5.20, implying +148.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 78/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $12.89 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $10.35 (P10) to $16.49 (P90), with a median of $13.24.
BUR's current P/E of 7.9x compares to the industry median of 12.6x (4 peers in the group). This represents a -37.2% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 20.2x over 6 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
3 analysts cover BUR with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $10.50 (range: $7.00 — $14.00), implying +101.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (2), Hold (1), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 78/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (22), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that BUR's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.1σ, meaning margins are 0.1 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (34.0%), the model estimates fair value drops by 18060.0% to approximately $15. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.