MODEL VERDICT
BorgWarner Inc. (BWA)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $56.77 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $56.29 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $55.66 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $52.49 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.38 | $54.48 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 11 analyst estimates | $59.84 | +5.4% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 11 industry peers | $58.88 | +3.7% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 10 industry peers | $22.52 | -60.3% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 11 industry peers | $93.17 | +64.1% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 11 industry peers | $19.55 | -65.6% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 11 industry peers | $118.99 | +109.6% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 11 industry peers | $40.35 | -28.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 11 industry peers | $41.90 | -26.2% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 10 industry peers | $22.51 | -60.3% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 11 industry peers | $93.17 | +64.1% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $54.38 | -4.2% | 100% | 83 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 36× | 40× | 44× (Current) | 48× | 52× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $47 | $52 | $57 | $63 | $68 |
| Conservative (5%) | $48 | $54 | $59 | $65 | $70 |
| Base Case (-11.4%) | $41 | $45 | $50 | $54 | $59 |
| Bull Case (-15%) | $39 | $43 | $48 | $52 | $56 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 17.36 | 14.53 | 8.87 | 35.20 | 8.90 |
| EV/EBIT | 10.87 | 10.70 | 6.84 | 14.54 | 2.83 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.11 | 5.95 | 4.86 | 21.15 | 5.80 |
| P/FCF | 11.83 | 10.49 | 5.92 | 17.62 | 4.11 |
| P/FFO | 7.20 | 7.06 | 5.60 | 9.79 | 1.27 |
| P/TBV | 2.83 | 3.04 | 2.14 | 3.38 | 0.48 |
| P/AFFO | 15.46 | 14.28 | 9.59 | 22.41 | 5.20 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.36 | 1.31 | 1.08 | 1.74 | 0.25 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.65 | 0.66 | 0.51 | 0.78 | 0.09 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates BWA's fair value at $54.38 vs the current price of $56.77, implying -4.2% downside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 83/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $54.38 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $51.13 (P10) to $67.61 (P90), with a median of $58.98.
BWA's current P/E of 44.4x compares to the industry median of 17.6x (10 peers in the group). This represents a +152.1% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 17.4x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
38 analysts cover BWA with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $68.80 (range: $51.00 — $81.00), implying +21.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (20), Hold (16), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 83/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: BWA trades at the 8260th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (17.4×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that BWA's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.5σ, meaning margins are 0.5 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (7.1%), the model estimates fair value drops by 19520.0% to approximately $168. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.