MODEL VERDICT
Babcock & Wilcox Enterprises, I (BWSN) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.15 | $25.18 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.14 | $25.18 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.14 | $25.18 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.13 | $25.18 | CURRENT | — |
| Nov 12, 2025 | NEUTRAL | 0.12 | $25.11 | Below threshold | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBIT 5 industry peers | $1.20 | -95.2% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $15.43 | -38.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $19.15 | -23.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $6.23 | -75.3% | 100% | 59 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA | 72.07 | 61.88 | 56.79 | 107.73 | 23.91 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.95 | 2.96 | 2.39 | 3.49 | 0.46 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 7 valuation metrics, the model estimates BWSN's fair value at $6.23 vs the current price of $25.18, implying -75.3% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 59/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $6.23 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $2.84 (P10) to $7.28 (P90), with a median of $4.92.
BWSN's current P/E of -30.7x compares to the industry median of 29.1x (3 peers in the group). This represents a -205.7% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
No analyst coverage data is available for BWSN.
The model confidence score is 59/100, based on: data completeness (12), peer quality (25), historical depth (10), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for BWSN.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.