MODEL VERDICT
Babcock & Wilcox Enterprises, I (BWNB) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.14 | $24.97 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.13 | $24.92 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.12 | $24.80 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.12 | $24.79 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.11 | $24.64 | Below threshold | +0.7% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBIT 5 industry peers | $1.20 | -95.2% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $15.48 | -38.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $19.20 | -23.1% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $5.44 | -78.2% | 100% | 56 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA | 64.75 | 57.80 | 48.98 | 94.43 | 20.27 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.61 | 2.73 | 1.99 | 2.99 | 0.46 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 7 valuation metrics, the model estimates BWNB's fair value at $5.44 vs the current price of $24.97, implying -78.2% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 56/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $5.44 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $2.60 (P10) to $6.91 (P90), with a median of $4.61.
BWNB's current P/E of -30.5x compares to the industry median of 29.1x (3 peers in the group). This represents a -204.8% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
No analyst coverage data is available for BWNB.
The model confidence score is 56/100, based on: data completeness (12), peer quality (25), historical depth (10), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for BWNB.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.