MODEL VERDICT
Apple Inc. (AAPL)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $280.14 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $271.06 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $270.23 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $266.43 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $260.48 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $212.25 | -24.2% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 9 industry peers | $157.55 | -43.8% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 8 industry peers | $246.42 | -12.0% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $219.83 | -21.5% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 9 industry peers | $217.57 | -22.3% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 7 industry peers | $226.47 | -19.2% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 7 industry peers | $178.30 | -36.4% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $128.17 | -54.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $138.62 | -50.5% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 8 industry peers | $244.83 | -12.6% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 8 industry peers | $242.91 | -13.3% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $216.34 | -22.8% | 100% | 94 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 32× | 35× | 38× (Current) | 41× | 44× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (7%) | $256 | $280 | $304 | $328 | $352 |
| Conservative (12%) | $266 | $291 | $316 | $341 | $366 |
| Base Case (17.9%) | $281 | $308 | $334 | $361 | $387 |
| Bull Case (24%) | $296 | $324 | $352 | $380 | $407 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 32.45 | 31.65 | 21.27 | 41.19 | 7.56 |
| EV/EBIT | 27.27 | 27.68 | 18.27 | 34.45 | 6.01 |
| EV/EBITDA | 25.08 | 25.75 | 17.08 | 31.16 | 5.39 |
| P/FCF | 30.50 | 31.70 | 19.03 | 41.30 | 7.42 |
| P/FFO | 28.46 | 28.26 | 19.13 | 36.68 | 6.77 |
| P/TBV | 44.58 | 47.47 | 15.09 | 67.75 | 16.52 |
| P/AFFO | 31.84 | 31.56 | 21.17 | 40.30 | 7.22 |
| P/B Ratio | 44.58 | 47.47 | 15.09 | 67.75 | 16.52 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 7.84 | 8.19 | 5.25 | 9.87 | 1.88 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates AAPL's fair value at $216.34 vs the current price of $280.14, implying -22.8% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 94/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $216.34 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $196.62 (P10) to $233.45 (P90), with a median of $214.56.
AAPL's current P/E of 37.6x compares to the industry median of 33.0x (8 peers in the group). This represents a +13.7% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 32.4x over 7 years. Signal: Slight Premium.
110 analysts cover AAPL with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $317.11 (range: $253.00 — $350.00), implying +13.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (69), Hold (33), Sell (7), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 94/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 27.1% is 2.9 percentage points above the 7-year average (24.2%), with a Z-score of +1.3σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$216. (2) Multiple compression: AAPL trades at the 7500th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (32.4×) would imply significant downside. (3) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that AAPL's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.3σ, meaning margins are 1.3 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (24.2%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2300.0% to approximately $216. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.