MODEL VERDICT
Apple Inc. (AAPL) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $264.18 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $264.58 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $255.78 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $273.68 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $259.37 | Below threshold | +5.9% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 5 analyst estimates | $204.14 | -22.7% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $192.30 | -27.2% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 3 industry peers | $204.36 | -22.6% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 5 industry peers | $131.02 | -50.4% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 5 industry peers | $328.46 | +24.3% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 5 industry peers | $108.27 | -59.0% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 2 industry peers | $193.79 | -26.6% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $97.67 | -63.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $94.33 | -64.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 3 industry peers | $205.97 | -22.0% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 5 industry peers | $133.49 | -49.5% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $219.64 | -16.9% | 100% | 91 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 29× | 32× | 35× (Current) | 38× | 41× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (7%) | $232 | $256 | $280 | $304 | $328 |
| Conservative (12%) | $241 | $266 | $291 | $316 | $341 |
| Base Case (17.9%) | $255 | $281 | $308 | $334 | $361 |
| Bull Case (24%) | $268 | $296 | $324 | $352 | $380 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 32.45 | 31.65 | 21.27 | 41.19 | 7.56 |
| EV/EBIT | 27.30 | 27.68 | 18.27 | 34.45 | 6.03 |
| EV/EBITDA | 25.10 | 25.75 | 17.08 | 31.16 | 5.40 |
| P/FCF | 30.50 | 31.70 | 19.03 | 41.30 | 7.42 |
| P/FFO | 28.46 | 28.26 | 19.13 | 36.68 | 6.77 |
| P/TBV | 44.58 | 47.47 | 15.09 | 67.75 | 16.52 |
| P/AFFO | 31.84 | 31.56 | 21.17 | 40.30 | 7.22 |
| P/B Ratio | 44.58 | 47.47 | 15.09 | 67.75 | 16.52 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 7.84 | 8.19 | 5.25 | 9.87 | 1.88 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates AAPL's fair value at $219.64 vs the current price of $264.18, implying -16.9% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 91/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $219.64 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $161.99 (P10) to $233.32 (P90), with a median of $197.00.
AAPL's current P/E of 35.4x compares to the industry median of 27.4x (3 peers in the group). This represents a +29.3% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 32.4x over 7 years. Signal: Premium.
109 analysts cover AAPL with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $303.11 (range: $220.00 — $350.00), implying +14.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (68), Hold (33), Sell (7), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 91/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 27.0% is 2.8 percentage points above the 7-year average (24.2%), with a Z-score of +1.2σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$217. (2) Multiple compression: AAPL trades at the 6670th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (32.4×) would imply significant downside. (3) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that AAPL's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.2σ, meaning margins are 1.2 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (24.2%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1800.0% to approximately $217. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.