MODEL VERDICT
BlueLinx Holdings Inc. (BXC)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $52.10 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $58.35 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $58.28 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $55.04 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $55.96 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 4 analyst estimates | $22.43 | -56.9% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 4 industry peers | $100.03 | +92.0% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 4 industry peers | $0.73 | -98.6% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 4 industry peers | $181.05 | +247.5% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 4 industry peers | $46.06 | -11.6% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 4 industry peers | $164.47 | +215.7% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 4 industry peers | $792.10 | +1420.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 4 industry peers | $730.93 | +1302.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 4 industry peers | $0.73 | -98.6% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 4 industry peers | $182.61 | +250.5% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $81.46 | +56.4% | 100% | 72 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 1586× | 1737× | 1888× (Current) | 2039× | 2190× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $45 | $49 | $53 | $57 | $62 |
| Conservative (5%) | $46 | $50 | $55 | $59 | $63 |
| Base Case (-68.2%) | $14 | $15 | $17 | $18 | $19 |
| Bull Case (-92%) | $3 | $4 | $4 | $4 | $5 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 378.69 | 9.96 | 2.26 | 2225.72 | 904.89 |
| EV/EBIT | 11.90 | 10.56 | 2.25 | 25.59 | 9.39 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.95 | 6.54 | 2.10 | 12.76 | 3.86 |
| P/FCF | 7.62 | 6.32 | 1.83 | 19.43 | 6.23 |
| P/FFO | 7.49 | 9.56 | 2.06 | 12.65 | 4.79 |
| P/TBV | 1.79 | 1.55 | 1.05 | 3.13 | 0.81 |
| P/AFFO | 10.22 | 10.03 | 2.32 | 19.21 | 8.32 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.03 | 1.48 | 0.79 | 4.68 | 1.44 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.19 | 0.17 | 0.05 | 0.32 | 0.10 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates BXC's fair value at $81.46 vs the current price of $52.10, implying +56.4% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 72/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $81.46 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $99.26 (P10) to $146.95 (P90), with a median of $122.98.
BXC's current P/E of 1887.7x compares to the industry median of 26.6x (4 peers in the group). This represents a +6998.0% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 378.7x over 6 years. Signal: High Premium.
8 analysts cover BXC with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $68.00 (range: $68.00 — $68.00), implying +30.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (6), Hold (2), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 72/100, based on: data completeness (24), peer quality (22), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: BXC trades at the N/Ath percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (378.7×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that BXC's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -1.0σ, meaning margins are 1.0 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (4.8%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1285830.0% to approximately $6751. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.