MODEL VERDICT
Blackstone Mortgage Trust, Inc. (BXMT)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $19.07 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $20.08 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $20.22 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $20.12 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $19.60 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / FFO 6 REIT peers | $12.36 | -35.2% | 30% | A | REIT Primary |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $8.20 | -57.0% | 15% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 6 industry peers | $17.04 | -10.6% | 12% | B | Supplementary |
| Price / Book 8 industry peers | $16.98 | -11.0% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| Industry Median P/E 5 industry peers | $10.63 | -44.3% | 5% | A | Peer Data |
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $15.52 | -18.6% | 5% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $9.13 | -52.1% | 3% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $23.11 | +21.2% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $17.27 | -9.4% | 100% | 77 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 26× | 28× | 30× (Current) | 32× | 34× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $17 | $18 | $20 | $21 | $22 |
| Conservative (5%) | $17 | $19 | $20 | $22 | $23 |
| Base Case (-8.0%) | $15 | $16 | $18 | $19 | $20 |
| Bull Case (-11%) | $15 | $16 | $17 | $18 | $19 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 19.09 | 15.36 | 11.05 | 29.89 | 7.96 |
| EV/EBIT | 22.65 | 22.54 | 13.94 | 34.15 | 7.25 |
| EV/EBITDA | 22.50 | 22.54 | 13.94 | 34.15 | 7.38 |
| P/FCF | 10.98 | 11.60 | 8.00 | 15.92 | 2.79 |
| P/FFO | 24.21 | 19.55 | 13.25 | 48.30 | 13.81 |
| P/TBV | 0.96 | 0.97 | 0.79 | 1.28 | 0.17 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.95 | 0.93 | 0.79 | 1.28 | 0.17 |
| Div Yield | 0.10 | 0.10 | 0.07 | 0.13 | 0.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.49 | 2.74 | 1.71 | 5.48 | 1.76 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 21 valuation metrics, the model estimates BXMT's fair value at $17.27 vs the current price of $19.07, implying -9.4% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 77/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $17.27 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $13.59 (P10) to $23.65 (P90), with a median of $18.14.
BXMT's current P/E of 29.8x compares to the industry median of 16.6x (5 peers in the group). This represents a +79.4% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 19.1x over 6 years. Signal: High Premium.
18 analysts cover BXMT with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is N/A (range: N/A — N/A), implying N/A upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (7), Hold (11), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 77/100, based on: data completeness (26), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: BXMT trades at the 9200th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (19.1×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that BXMT's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.6σ, meaning margins are 0.6 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (18.4%), the model estimates fair value drops by 7450.0% to approximately $33. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.