MODEL VERDICT
BXP, Inc. (BXP)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $59.37 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $57.73 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $58.05 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $55.93 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $53.00 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / FFO 8 REIT peers | $54.55 | -8.1% | 30% | A | REIT Primary |
| Price / AFFO 2 REIT peers | $66.32 | +11.7% | 20% | A | REIT Primary |
| EV/EBITDA 10 industry peers | $102.30 | +72.3% | 15% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 9 industry peers | $82.41 | +38.8% | 12% | B | Supplementary |
| Price / Book 10 industry peers | $39.26 | -33.9% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| Industry Median P/E 5 industry peers | $31.93 | -46.2% | 5% | A | Peer Data |
| Forward P/E 5 analyst estimates | $119.32 | +101.0% | 5% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 10 industry peers | $72.11 | +21.5% | 3% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 10 industry peers | $73.16 | +23.2% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $85.48 | +44.0% | 100% | 81 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 28× | 31× | 34× (Current) | 37× | 40× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $50 | $55 | $60 | $66 | $71 |
| Conservative (5%) | $51 | $57 | $62 | $68 | $73 |
| Base Case (-20.7%) | $39 | $43 | $47 | $51 | $55 |
| Bull Case (-28%) | $35 | $39 | $43 | $46 | $50 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 190.51 | 38.78 | 12.51 | 826.22 | 303.87 |
| EV/EBIT | 27.04 | 29.29 | 16.89 | 38.12 | 7.45 |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.05 | 14.55 | 9.34 | 19.07 | 3.29 |
| P/FCF | 16.18 | 14.92 | 12.01 | 28.52 | 5.64 |
| P/FFO | 11.62 | 10.78 | 6.63 | 17.77 | 3.79 |
| P/TBV | 1.75 | 1.48 | 1.35 | 2.66 | 0.51 |
| P/AFFO | 17.74 | 17.17 | 8.83 | 27.75 | 7.40 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.74 | 1.48 | 1.27 | 2.66 | 0.53 |
| Div Yield | 0.05 | 0.06 | 0.03 | 0.06 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 4.58 | 3.44 | 3.08 | 7.21 | 1.66 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates BXP's fair value at $85.48 vs the current price of $59.37, implying +44.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $85.48 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $72.70 (P10) to $104.59 (P90), with a median of $86.18.
BXP's current P/E of 34.1x compares to the industry median of 18.3x (5 peers in the group). This represents a +86.0% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 190.5x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
42 analysts cover BXP with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $72.10 (range: $62.00 — $81.00), implying +21.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (23), Hold (18), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that BXP's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.4σ, meaning margins are 0.4 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (13.1%), the model estimates fair value drops by 82140.0% to approximately $547. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.