MODEL VERDICT
CACI International Inc (CACI)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $513.29 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $516.54 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $527.16 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $531.68 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $534.49 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $359.83 | -29.9% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $378.05 | -26.3% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 5 industry peers | $344.90 | -32.8% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 5 industry peers | $277.92 | -45.9% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 5 industry peers | $300.29 | -41.5% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 5 industry peers | $133.28 | -74.0% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 4 industry peers | $250.92 | -51.1% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 6 industry peers | $446.58 | -13.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 6 industry peers | $562.72 | +9.6% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $317.89 | -38.1% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 6 industry peers | $283.87 | -44.7% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $350.53 | -31.7% | 100% | 91 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 19× | 21× | 23× (Current) | 25× | 27× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (5%) | $445 | $491 | $538 | $585 | $632 |
| Conservative (8%) | $457 | $506 | $554 | $602 | $650 |
| Base Case (12.1%) | $475 | $525 | $575 | $626 | $676 |
| Bull Case (16%) | $493 | $545 | $597 | $649 | $701 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 20.44 | 19.77 | 14.71 | 23.90 | 3.17 |
| EV/EBIT | 18.10 | 17.54 | 16.31 | 21.02 | 1.76 |
| EV/EBITDA | 14.57 | 14.13 | 13.24 | 17.12 | 1.41 |
| P/FCF | 17.07 | 14.23 | 10.61 | 24.78 | 5.81 |
| P/FFO | 15.19 | 14.70 | 11.54 | 18.06 | 2.17 |
| P/AFFO | 17.44 | 17.66 | 13.20 | 20.91 | 2.41 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.56 | 2.52 | 2.33 | 3.06 | 0.26 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.19 | 1.15 | 1.11 | 1.38 | 0.10 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates CACI's fair value at $350.53 vs the current price of $513.29, implying -31.7% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 91/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $350.53 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $337.16 (P10) to $410.55 (P90), with a median of $373.24.
CACI's current P/E of 23.0x compares to the industry median of 15.5x (5 peers in the group). This represents a +48.8% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 20.4x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
29 analysts cover CACI with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $725.50 (range: $550.00 — $800.00), implying +41.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (20), Hold (9), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 91/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: CACI trades at the 6100th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (20.4×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that CACI's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.1σ, meaning margins are 0.1 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (5.9%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1020.0% to approximately $461. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.