MODEL VERDICT
Canaan Inc. (CAN)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $0.52 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $0.52 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $0.57 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $0.55 | CURRENT | — |
| Mar 13, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $0.49 | Pending | -7.3% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $9.91 | +1814.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $9.76 | +1785.6% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $7.43 | +1336.1% | 100% | 58 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 3.07 | 1.26 | 0.58 | 13.99 | 4.85 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.06 | 1.26 | 0.58 | 13.99 | 4.85 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.91 | 1.15 | 0.54 | 13.52 | 4.72 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 5 valuation metrics, the model estimates CAN's fair value at $7.43 vs the current price of $0.52, implying +1336.1% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 58/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $7.43 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $3.51 (P10) to $14.64 (P90), with a median of $8.78.
CAN's current P/E of -1.2x compares to the industry median of 17.3x (3 peers in the group). This represents a -106.6% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
6 analysts cover CAN with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $2.25 (range: $1.50 — $3.00), implying +334.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (6), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 58/100, based on: data completeness (6), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for CAN.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.