MODEL VERDICT
Cango Inc. (CANG)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 13, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $0.65 | CURRENT | -35.2% |
| Mar 6, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.63 | $0.67 | Pending | -29.7% |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $0.88 | Pending | -48.6% |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $0.93 | Pending | -54.6% |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $1.48 | Monitoring | -71.5% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA 15 industry peers | $10.32 | +1484.3% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 14 industry peers | $9.17 | +1307.7% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 14 industry peers | $7.46 | +1045.2% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 16 industry peers | $9.42 | +1346.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 16 industry peers | $5.08 | +679.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 14 industry peers | $9.00 | +1281.6% | 2% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $7.62 | +1069.9% | 100% | 64 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× | 5× | 7× (Current) | 9× | 11× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $3 | $3 | $5 | $6 | $7 |
| Conservative (7%) | $3 | $3 | $5 | $6 | $8 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $3 | $4 | $5 | $6 | $8 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $3 | $4 | $5 | $7 | $8 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 4.62 | 5.26 | 0.63 | 7.35 | 3.21 |
| EV/EBIT | 18.59 | 8.46 | 2.21 | 55.23 | 24.64 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.67 | 6.81 | 3.23 | 9.96 | 3.37 |
| P/FCF | 6.88 | 7.31 | 0.24 | 13.09 | 6.43 |
| P/FFO | 4.52 | 5.13 | 0.63 | 7.20 | 3.13 |
| P/TBV | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.07 | 0.52 | 0.18 |
| P/AFFO | 5.31 | 7.55 | 0.63 | 7.75 | 4.05 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.24 | 0.25 | 0.06 | 0.51 | 0.17 |
| Div Yield | 1.11 | 0.13 | 0.01 | 4.46 | 1.91 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.98 | 1.04 | 0.15 | 2.04 | 0.82 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 16 valuation metrics, the model estimates CANG's fair value at $7.62 vs the current price of $0.65, implying +1069.9% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 64/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $7.62 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $6.84 (P10) to $9.41 (P90), with a median of $8.08.
CANG's current P/E of 6.9x compares to the industry median of 14.2x (14 peers in the group). This represents a -51.2% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 4.6x over 4 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
2 analysts cover CANG with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $3.00 (range: $3.00 — $3.00), implying +360.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (1), Hold (1), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 64/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: --10 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: CANG trades at the N/Ath percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (4.6×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for CANG.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.