MODEL VERDICT
CrossAmerica Partners LP (CAPL)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.52 | $21.27 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.40 | $20.87 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.32 | $21.11 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.32 | $21.29 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $21.50 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $8.76 | -58.8% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $42.40 | +99.3% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $25.97 | +22.1% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $39.46 | +85.5% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 8 industry peers | $23.35 | +9.8% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 7 industry peers | $31.68 | +48.9% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $25.78 | +21.2% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 7 industry peers | $36.64 | +72.3% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $25.15 | +18.2% | 100% | 80 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 16× | 18× | 20× (Current) | 22× | 24× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $18 | $20 | $22 | $24 | $27 |
| Conservative (5%) | $18 | $21 | $23 | $25 | $27 |
| Base Case (-17.6%) | $14 | $16 | $18 | $20 | $22 |
| Bull Case (-24%) | $13 | $15 | $17 | $18 | $20 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 24.17 | 21.71 | 5.98 | 42.31 | 13.13 |
| EV/EBIT | 24.89 | 22.22 | 11.58 | 46.66 | 12.24 |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.86 | 10.74 | 7.29 | 15.01 | 2.67 |
| P/FCF | 11.44 | 13.03 | 5.76 | 14.13 | 3.04 |
| P/FFO | 6.69 | 7.26 | 3.64 | 8.76 | 1.83 |
| P/AFFO | 9.64 | 10.52 | 4.61 | 12.82 | 3.19 |
| P/B Ratio | 12.87 | 9.54 | 5.85 | 28.26 | 8.97 |
| Div Yield | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.09 | 0.12 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.23 | 0.20 | 0.15 | 0.33 | 0.07 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 21 valuation metrics, the model estimates CAPL's fair value at $25.15 vs the current price of $21.27, implying +18.2% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 80/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $25.15 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $22.43 (P10) to $30.90 (P90), with a median of $26.53.
CAPL's current P/E of 19.5x compares to the industry median of 23.8x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -18.1% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 24.2x over 7 years. Signal: Discount.
15 analysts cover CAPL with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is N/A (range: N/A — N/A), implying N/A upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (6), Hold (8), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 80/100, based on: data completeness (21), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that CAPL's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.4σ, meaning margins are 0.4 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (2.5%), the model estimates fair value drops by 29950.0% to approximately $85. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.