MODEL VERDICT
Carter Bankshares, Inc. (CARE)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $25.88 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $24.11 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $24.25 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $24.29 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $24.40 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 4 industry peers | $18.58 | -28.2% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 4 industry peers | $22.38 | -13.5% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 4 bank peers | $28.52 | +10.2% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Earnings Yield 4 industry peers | $18.61 | -28.1% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 4 analyst estimates | $59.41 | +129.6% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $22.82 | -11.8% | 100% | 78 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 14× | 16× | 18× (Current) | 20× | 22× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $20 | $23 | $26 | $29 | $32 |
| Conservative (7%) | $21 | $24 | $27 | $30 | $33 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $22 | $25 | $28 | $31 | $34 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $22 | $25 | $29 | $32 | $35 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 15.02 | 14.51 | 8.17 | 23.49 | 5.04 |
| EV/EBIT | 13.20 | 12.07 | 3.77 | 23.91 | 7.08 |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.42 | 11.02 | 3.21 | 19.64 | 5.79 |
| P/FCF | 11.77 | 11.65 | 5.87 | 20.94 | 5.74 |
| P/FFO | 12.45 | 11.74 | 7.26 | 19.58 | 4.51 |
| P/TBV | 1.07 | 1.06 | 0.64 | 1.52 | 0.27 |
| P/AFFO | 16.71 | 17.44 | 8.11 | 26.63 | 6.74 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.04 | 1.05 | 0.64 | 1.32 | 0.22 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.20 | 1.73 | 1.64 | 3.71 | 0.76 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 14 valuation metrics, the model estimates CARE's fair value at $22.82 vs the current price of $25.88, implying -11.8% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 78/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $22.82 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $22.16 (P10) to $26.23 (P90), with a median of $24.17.
CARE's current P/E of 18.5x compares to the industry median of 13.3x (4 peers in the group). This represents a +39.3% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 15.0x over 6 years. Signal: High Premium.
4 analysts cover CARE with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $27.00 (range: $27.00 — $27.00), implying +4.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (2), Hold (2), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 78/100, based on: data completeness (24), peer quality (22), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: CARE trades at the 8570th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (15.0×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that CARE's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.1σ, meaning margins are 0.1 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (9.9%), the model estimates fair value drops by 3460.0% to approximately $17. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.