MODEL VERDICT
Crescent Biopharma, Inc. (CBIO)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 5, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $18.00 | CURRENT | — |
| May 29, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $20.65 | CURRENT | — |
| May 22, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $20.74 | CURRENT | — |
| May 15, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $19.97 | CURRENT | — |
| May 8, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $18.76 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV To Revenue 3 industry peers | $10.44 | -42.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 3 industry peers | $2.84 | -84.2% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $48730.74 | +270626.3% | 100% | 54 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 188.96 | 141.23 | 0.61 | 389.15 | 156.78 |
| P/B Ratio | 188.96 | 141.23 | 0.61 | 389.15 | 156.78 |
| P/S Ratio | 343039.93 | 6388.59 | 11.39 | 1494882.17 | 650264.23 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 5 valuation metrics, the model estimates CBIO's fair value at $48730.74 vs the current price of $18.00, implying +270626.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 54/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $48730.74 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $6.29 (P10) to $95795.28 (P90), with a median of $26882.23.
CBIO's current P/E of -1.4x compares to the industry median of 22.1x (1 peers in the group). This represents a -106.4% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
13 analysts cover CBIO with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $33.00 (range: $29.00 — $35.00), implying +83.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (8), Hold (5), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 54/100, based on: data completeness (6), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for CBIO.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.