MODEL VERDICT
CBL & Associates Properties, Inc. (CBL) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $37.78 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $38.22 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $35.05 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $36.56 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $37.83 | Pending | -3.8% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA 21 industry peers | $85.29 | +125.8% | 15% | A- | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 21 industry peers | $20.26 | -46.4% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| Industry Median P/E 20 industry peers | $105.10 | +178.2% | 5% | A | Peer Data |
| Forward P/E 20 analyst estimates | $30.78 | -18.5% | 5% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 21 industry peers | $135.83 | +259.5% | 3% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 21 industry peers | $149.63 | +296.1% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $61.19 | +62.0% | 100% | 77 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 5× | 7× | 9× (Current) | 11× | 13× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $23 | $32 | $41 | $50 | $59 |
| Conservative (7%) | $23 | $32 | $42 | $51 | $60 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $24 | $33 | $43 | $53 | $62 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $25 | $34 | $44 | $54 | $64 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 55.97 | 15.73 | 8.53 | 143.65 | 76.02 |
| EV/EBIT | 24.18 | 15.25 | 10.16 | 58.18 | 19.55 |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.38 | 10.36 | 8.52 | 13.51 | 1.98 |
| P/FCF | 32.47 | 4.50 | 3.33 | 134.47 | 57.25 |
| P/FFO | 3.82 | 3.78 | 3.50 | 4.23 | 0.30 |
| P/TBV | 21.95 | 8.64 | 5.17 | 52.05 | 26.12 |
| P/B Ratio | 4.65 | 2.91 | 1.89 | 13.00 | 4.69 |
| Div Yield | 0.08 | 0.06 | 0.03 | 0.15 | 0.06 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.09 | 1.77 | 1.23 | 9.04 | 3.34 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 18 valuation metrics, the model estimates CBL's fair value at $61.19 vs the current price of $37.78, implying +62.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 77/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $61.19 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $47.48 (P10) to $74.53 (P90), with a median of $59.07.
CBL's current P/E of 8.7x compares to the industry median of 24.2x (20 peers in the group). This represents a -64.0% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 56.0x over 3 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
22 analysts cover CBL with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is N/A (range: N/A — N/A), implying N/A upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (1), Hold (12), Sell (9), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 77/100, based on: data completeness (22), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for CBL.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.