MODEL VERDICT
CBRE Group, Inc. (CBRE)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $141.81 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $148.29 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $151.51 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $147.48 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $141.22 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / FFO 6 REIT peers | $101.62 | -28.3% | 30% | A | REIT Primary |
| Price / AFFO 5 REIT peers | $95.07 | -33.0% | 20% | A | REIT Primary |
| EV/EBITDA 5 industry peers | $67.14 | -52.7% | 15% | A- | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 7 industry peers | $63.98 | -54.9% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| Industry Median P/E 5 industry peers | $120.19 | -15.2% | 5% | A | Peer Data |
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $107.04 | -24.5% | 5% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $324.24 | +128.6% | 3% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $206.55 | +45.7% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $107.71 | -24.0% | 100% | 86 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 31× | 34× | 37× (Current) | 40× | 43× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (5%) | $125 | $137 | $149 | $161 | $173 |
| Conservative (8%) | $128 | $141 | $153 | $166 | $178 |
| Base Case (11.6%) | $133 | $146 | $159 | $172 | $185 |
| Bull Case (16%) | $138 | $151 | $165 | $178 | $192 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 27.95 | 28.25 | 16.26 | 41.81 | 10.68 |
| EV/EBIT | 24.60 | 24.67 | 17.95 | 31.09 | 5.51 |
| EV/EBITDA | 18.31 | 17.86 | 12.89 | 27.42 | 4.91 |
| P/FCF | 37.58 | 21.67 | 12.84 | 127.05 | 40.50 |
| P/FFO | 17.80 | 17.21 | 12.12 | 25.15 | 5.18 |
| P/TBV | 18.35 | 17.31 | 9.16 | 31.77 | 7.43 |
| P/AFFO | 21.53 | 21.91 | 14.33 | 31.06 | 6.79 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.67 | 3.33 | 2.83 | 5.02 | 0.82 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.02 | 0.91 | 0.82 | 1.33 | 0.20 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 23 valuation metrics, the model estimates CBRE's fair value at $107.71 vs the current price of $141.81, implying -24.0% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 86/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $107.71 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $98.75 (P10) to $122.83 (P90), with a median of $110.54.
CBRE's current P/E of 36.8x compares to the industry median of 31.2x (5 peers in the group). This represents a +18.0% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 27.9x over 7 years. Signal: Slight Premium.
20 analysts cover CBRE with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $179.75 (range: $175.00 — $185.00), implying +26.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (13), Hold (6), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 86/100, based on: data completeness (26), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: CBRE trades at the 4440th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (27.9×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that CBRE's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.6σ, meaning margins are 0.6 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (4.0%), the model estimates fair value drops by 120.0% to approximately $140. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.