MODEL VERDICT
The Chemours Company (CC)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.15 | $27.73 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $26.61 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $23.18 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $23.03 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $22.71 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $18.64 | -32.8% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $24.57 | -11.4% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 5 industry peers | $11.08 | -60.0% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $27.97 | +0.9% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $39.25 | +41.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $40.29 | +45.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 5 industry peers | $11.04 | -60.2% | 2% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $19.23 | -30.6% | 100% | 61 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 41× | 45× | 49× (Current) | 53× | 57× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $24 | $27 | $29 | $31 | $34 |
| Conservative (7%) | $25 | $27 | $30 | $32 | $35 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $26 | $28 | $31 | $33 | $36 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $27 | $29 | $32 | $34 | $37 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 14.26 | 9.32 | 5.18 | 29.65 | 9.98 |
| EV/EBIT | 11.82 | 12.04 | 6.29 | 16.32 | 4.26 |
| EV/EBITDA | 12.83 | 8.30 | 5.23 | 42.35 | 13.09 |
| P/FCF | 13.32 | 10.68 | 7.64 | 25.25 | 6.86 |
| P/FFO | 15.97 | 6.55 | 4.03 | 68.07 | 23.18 |
| P/TBV | 5.84 | 5.81 | 4.56 | 7.41 | 0.95 |
| P/AFFO | 26.60 | 8.74 | 6.60 | 93.90 | 37.76 |
| P/B Ratio | 4.94 | 5.05 | 4.19 | 6.36 | 0.75 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.06 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.71 | 0.77 | 0.44 | 0.89 | 0.16 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 19 valuation metrics, the model estimates CC's fair value at $19.23 vs the current price of $27.73, implying -30.6% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 61/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $19.23 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $16.05 (P10) to $30.68 (P90), with a median of $21.19.
CC's current P/E of 48.6x compares to the industry median of 19.4x (5 peers in the group). This represents a +150.4% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 14.3x over 5 years. Signal: High Premium.
20 analysts cover CC with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $22.14 (range: $17.00 — $30.00), implying -20.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (9), Hold (10), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 61/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: --10 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: CC trades at the 8800th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (14.3×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for CC.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.