MODEL VERDICT
Crown Castle Inc. (CCI)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $89.26 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $86.34 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $88.71 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $85.63 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $86.29 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / FFO 6 REIT peers | $28.97 | -67.5% | 30% | A | REIT Primary |
| Price / AFFO 3 REIT peers | $63.71 | -28.6% | 20% | A | REIT Primary |
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $33.19 | -62.8% | 15% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 2 industry peers | $141.22 | +58.2% | 12% | B | Supplementary |
| Industry Median P/E 3 industry peers | $23.81 | -73.3% | 5% | A | Peer Data |
| Forward P/E 2 analyst estimates | $59.17 | -33.7% | 5% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Price / Sales 5 industry peers | $21.63 | -75.8% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $71.92 | -19.4% | 100% | 81 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 74× | 81× | 88× (Current) | 95× | 102× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $77 | $84 | $92 | $99 | $106 |
| Conservative (5%) | $79 | $87 | $94 | $102 | $109 |
| Base Case (-15.4%) | $64 | $70 | $76 | $82 | $88 |
| Bull Case (-21%) | $60 | $65 | $71 | $77 | $82 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 64.20 | 73.58 | 33.29 | 87.13 | 24.10 |
| EV/EBIT | 45.82 | 44.98 | 32.79 | 64.78 | 13.31 |
| EV/EBITDA | 25.03 | 25.59 | 19.09 | 32.18 | 4.66 |
| P/FCF | 43.39 | 37.54 | 13.51 | 92.70 | 26.71 |
| P/FFO | 24.99 | 24.91 | 15.35 | 34.28 | 7.78 |
| P/AFFO | 63.33 | 50.40 | 27.29 | 158.45 | 49.17 |
| P/B Ratio | 7.90 | 7.83 | 5.66 | 10.97 | 1.94 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.07 | 0.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 9.55 | 9.11 | 6.00 | 14.29 | 2.80 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 20 valuation metrics, the model estimates CCI's fair value at $71.92 vs the current price of $89.26, implying -19.4% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $71.92 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $55.53 (P10) to $87.35 (P90), with a median of $70.35.
CCI's current P/E of 87.5x compares to the industry median of 23.3x (3 peers in the group). This represents a +274.9% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 64.2x over 6 years. Signal: High Premium.
46 analysts cover CCI with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $105.40 (range: $91.00 — $127.00), implying +18.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (23), Hold (22), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (26), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: CCI trades at the 8000th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (64.2×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that CCI's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.6σ, meaning margins are 0.6 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (6.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 8160.0% to approximately $16. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.