MODEL VERDICT
Cameco Corporation (CCJ)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $120.60 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $122.15 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $120.66 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $119.11 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $116.04 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 1 analyst estimates | $116.72 | -3.2% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 1 industry peers | $80.48 | -33.3% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 1 industry peers | $13.94 | -88.4% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 1 industry peers | $115.18 | -4.5% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 1 industry peers | $46.38 | -61.5% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 1 industry peers | $96.74 | -19.8% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 1 industry peers | $4.99 | -95.9% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 4 industry peers | $68.13 | -43.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 4 industry peers | $74.67 | -38.1% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 1 industry peers | $10.84 | -91.0% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 1 industry peers | $39.38 | -67.3% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $72.20 | -40.1% | 100% | 80 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 352× | 386× | 420× (Current) | 454× | 488× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (6%) | $146 | $160 | $174 | $188 | $202 |
| Conservative (10%) | $151 | $166 | $180 | $195 | $209 |
| Base Case (15.5%) | $159 | $174 | $189 | $205 | $220 |
| Bull Case (21%) | $166 | $182 | $198 | $214 | $230 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 72.12 | 51.93 | 27.02 | 131.77 | 43.57 |
| EV/EBIT | 39.35 | 38.63 | 15.91 | 59.05 | 16.18 |
| EV/EBITDA | 46.94 | 37.84 | 9.46 | 155.36 | 49.91 |
| P/FCF | 28.03 | 28.21 | 7.34 | 57.27 | 18.01 |
| P/FFO | 37.30 | 32.29 | 7.78 | 98.73 | 30.35 |
| P/TBV | 1.85 | 1.59 | 0.91 | 3.54 | 1.07 |
| P/AFFO | 45.07 | 46.66 | 8.61 | 81.57 | 30.52 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.84 | 1.58 | 0.90 | 3.52 | 1.06 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 4.60 | 4.94 | 1.89 | 7.25 | 2.29 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates CCJ's fair value at $72.20 vs the current price of $120.60, implying -40.1% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 80/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $72.20 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $60.75 (P10) to $98.91 (P90), with a median of $77.00.
CCJ's current P/E of 420.0x compares to the industry median of 35.7x (1 peers in the group). This represents a +1075.2% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 72.1x over 5 years. Signal: High Premium.
19 analysts cover CCJ with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $125.91 (range: $99.74 — $147.00), implying +4.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (12), Hold (4), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 80/100, based on: data completeness (24), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 15.2% is 9.6 percentage points above the 5-year average (8.4%), with a Z-score of +1.1σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$16. (2) Multiple compression: CCJ trades at the N/Ath percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (72.1×) would imply significant downside. (3) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that CCJ's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.1σ, meaning margins are 1.1 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 5-year mean (8.4%), the model estimates fair value drops by 8700.0% to approximately $16. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.