MODEL VERDICT
Crown Holdings, Inc. (CCK)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $100.15 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $101.13 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $107.15 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $104.89 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $106.95 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $114.77 | +14.6% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $118.93 | +18.8% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $93.36 | -6.8% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 6 industry peers | $128.26 | +28.1% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $157.12 | +56.9% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 6 industry peers | $180.78 | +80.5% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 4 industry peers | $137.60 | +37.4% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $92.15 | -8.0% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $79.35 | -20.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $91.20 | -8.9% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 6 industry peers | $127.69 | +27.5% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $146.04 | +45.8% | 100% | 85 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 12× | 14× | 16× (Current) | 18× | 20× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (6%) | $81 | $95 | $108 | $122 | $135 |
| Conservative (10%) | $84 | $98 | $112 | $126 | $140 |
| Base Case (15.2%) | $88 | $103 | $118 | $132 | $147 |
| Bull Case (21%) | $92 | $108 | $123 | $138 | $154 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 22.46 | 23.89 | 13.72 | 31.81 | 6.58 |
| EV/EBIT | 14.20 | 12.99 | 10.54 | 20.10 | 3.81 |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.30 | 9.80 | 8.19 | 14.03 | 2.09 |
| P/FCF | 39.00 | 15.04 | 10.85 | 162.05 | 60.35 |
| P/FFO | 10.77 | 10.67 | 8.41 | 13.47 | 1.76 |
| P/AFFO | 30.92 | 24.87 | 15.34 | 70.64 | 20.56 |
| P/B Ratio | 4.39 | 4.36 | 3.06 | 6.19 | 1.08 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.03 | 0.96 | 0.77 | 1.44 | 0.24 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates CCK's fair value at $146.04 vs the current price of $100.15, implying +45.8% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 85/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $146.04 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $112.05 (P10) to $198.60 (P90), with a median of $144.23.
CCK's current P/E of 15.7x compares to the industry median of 14.6x (6 peers in the group). This represents a +7.3% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 22.5x over 6 years. Signal: Fair Value.
25 analysts cover CCK with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $120.50 (range: $115.00 — $126.00), implying +20.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (18), Hold (7), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 85/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that CCK's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.8σ, meaning margins are 0.8 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (9.4%), the model estimates fair value drops by 12490.0% to approximately $225. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.