MODEL VERDICT
Clear Channel Outdoor Holdings, Inc. (CCO)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.66 | $2.40 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.58 | $2.39 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.58 | $2.38 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.58 | $2.41 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $2.37 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $2.10 | -12.5% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 7 industry peers | $0.76 | -68.3% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $8.11 | +237.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 7 industry peers | $0.76 | -68.3% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $4.20 | +75.1% | 100% | 73 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBIT | 35.57 | 28.33 | 24.87 | 60.11 | 14.35 |
| EV/EBITDA | 21.68 | 16.42 | 13.16 | 56.82 | 15.63 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.55 | 0.45 | 0.36 | 0.88 | 0.19 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 10 valuation metrics, the model estimates CCO's fair value at $4.20 vs the current price of $2.40, implying +75.1% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 73/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $4.20 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $1.20 (P10) to $6.18 (P90), with a median of $3.06.
CCO's current P/E of -11.4x compares to the industry median of 24.0x (6 peers in the group). This represents a -147.6% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
16 analysts cover CCO with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $2.25 (range: $2.00 — $2.50), implying -6.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (0), Hold (9), Sell (7), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 73/100, based on: data completeness (21), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for CCO.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.