MODEL VERDICT
Cogent Communications Holdings, Inc. (CCOI)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.58 | $23.16 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.57 | $24.47 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.58 | $23.63 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.58 | $23.53 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.60 | $20.31 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 226.92 | 81.25 | 2.86 | 518.91 | 242.67 |
| EV/EBIT | 29.83 | 33.44 | 4.07 | 49.92 | 16.58 |
| EV/EBITDA | 30.27 | 21.00 | 18.56 | 57.85 | 17.10 |
| P/FCF | 31.40 | 31.45 | 28.44 | 34.25 | 2.74 |
| P/FFO | 23.26 | 25.75 | 2.42 | 39.07 | 12.30 |
| P/AFFO | 65.13 | 50.91 | 2.64 | 146.47 | 53.70 |
| Div Yield | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.04 | 0.06 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 4.18 | 4.49 | 1.06 | 5.83 | 1.61 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 2 valuation metrics, the model estimates CCOI's fair value at $47.16 vs the current price of $23.16, implying +103.6% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 59/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $47.16 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (8,467 iterations) gives a range of $3.12 (P10) to $50.27 (P90), with a median of $23.40.
CCOI's current P/E of -6.1x compares to the industry median of 13.7x (4 peers in the group). This represents a -144.6% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 226.9x over 5 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
32 analysts cover CCOI with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $27.50 (range: $21.00 — $40.00), implying +18.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (9), Hold (19), Sell (4), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 59/100, based on: data completeness (7), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (3). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for CCOI.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.