MODEL VERDICT
Cross Country Healthcare, Inc. (CCRN) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 30 analyst estimates | $1.44 | -82.9% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 29 industry peers | $2.49 | -70.5% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 29 industry peers | $55.53 | +557.9% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 30 industry peers | $80.83 | +857.7% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 37 industry peers | $50.66 | +500.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 37 industry peers | $27.72 | +228.4% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 29 industry peers | $56.14 | +565.2% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $28.45 | +237.1% | 100% | 75 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 8.07 | 7.86 | 5.29 | 11.04 | 2.88 |
| EV/EBIT | 20.35 | 8.49 | 4.30 | 57.52 | 22.19 |
| EV/EBITDA | 363.05 | 8.29 | 4.08 | 964.73 | 490.98 |
| P/FCF | 34.48 | 11.07 | 3.42 | 159.94 | 61.66 |
| P/FFO | 56.77 | 8.08 | 5.02 | 205.90 | 99.43 |
| P/TBV | 10.48 | 6.29 | 2.51 | 35.95 | 11.88 |
| P/AFFO | 7.81 | 7.73 | 5.26 | 10.43 | 2.59 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.09 | 2.07 | 1.20 | 3.49 | 0.77 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.43 | 0.40 | 0.32 | 0.62 | 0.10 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 18 valuation metrics, the model estimates CCRN's fair value at $28.45 vs the current price of $8.44, implying +237.1% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 75/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $28.45 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $24.68 (P10) to $79.02 (P90), with a median of $42.90.
CCRN's current P/E of -19.2x compares to the industry median of 21.3x (20 peers in the group). This represents a -190.2% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 8.1x over 3 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
13 analysts cover CCRN with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $9.93 (range: $8.65 — $11.00), implying +17.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (3), Hold (10), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 75/100, based on: data completeness (15), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for CCRN.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.