MODEL VERDICT
Consensus Cloud Solutions, Inc. (CCSI) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $30.08 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $29.87 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $29.61 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $24.24 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $22.08 | Pending | +2.7% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 71 analyst estimates | $90.01 | +199.2% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 55 industry peers | $149.52 | +397.1% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 45 industry peers | $99.94 | +232.2% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 67 industry peers | $81.63 | +171.4% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 51 industry peers | $144.46 | +380.3% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 68 industry peers | $91.05 | +202.7% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 78 industry peers | $60.94 | +102.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 79 industry peers | $52.08 | +73.1% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 50 industry peers | $112.55 | +274.2% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 67 industry peers | $84.70 | +181.6% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $91.81 | +205.2% | 100% | 74 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× | 5× | 7× (Current) | 9× | 11× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $18 | $22 | $31 | $40 | $49 |
| Conservative (5%) | $18 | $23 | $32 | $41 | $50 |
| Base Case (-8.5%) | $16 | $20 | $28 | $36 | $44 |
| Bull Case (-11%) | $15 | $19 | $27 | $35 | $42 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 8.11 | 6.65 | 5.02 | 14.85 | 4.07 |
| EV/EBIT | 7.93 | 7.91 | 2.39 | 11.90 | 3.76 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.88 | 7.13 | 2.13 | 10.70 | 3.16 |
| P/FCF | 8.45 | 5.80 | 4.01 | 20.59 | 6.85 |
| P/FFO | 6.62 | 5.43 | 4.11 | 12.19 | 3.35 |
| P/AFFO | 9.67 | 8.83 | 5.81 | 18.50 | 5.17 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.04 | 1.42 | 1.21 | 3.28 | 1.00 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates CCSI's fair value at $91.81 vs the current price of $30.08, implying +205.2% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 74/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $91.81 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $69.11 (P10) to $106.99 (P90), with a median of $87.68.
CCSI's current P/E of 6.9x compares to the industry median of 23.0x (45 peers in the group). This represents a -69.9% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 8.1x over 5 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
6 analysts cover CCSI with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $25.00 (range: $20.00 — $30.00), implying -16.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (4), Hold (0), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 74/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that CCSI's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.6σ, meaning margins are 0.6 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 5-year mean (33.6%), the model estimates fair value drops by 6290.0% to approximately $49. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.