MODEL VERDICT
Palo Alto Networks, Inc. (PANW) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $148.92 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $148.70 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.45 | $166.95 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.49 | $165.51 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $189.02 | Below threshold | -12.2% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 71 analyst estimates | $58.70 | -60.6% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 55 industry peers | $46.73 | -68.6% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 45 industry peers | $36.57 | -75.4% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 67 industry peers | $71.69 | -51.9% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 51 industry peers | $32.40 | -78.2% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 68 industry peers | $81.36 | -45.4% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 78 industry peers | $47.41 | -68.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 79 industry peers | $38.73 | -74.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 50 industry peers | $37.23 | -75.0% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 67 industry peers | $74.66 | -49.9% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $201.24 | +35.1% | 100% | 78 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 79× | 86× | 93× (Current) | 100× | 107× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $131 | $143 | $155 | $166 | $178 |
| Conservative (7%) | $135 | $147 | $158 | $170 | $182 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $139 | $151 | $164 | $176 | $188 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $143 | $156 | $169 | $182 | $194 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 131.83 | 115.13 | 49.99 | 230.38 | 91.35 |
| EV/EBIT | 696.03 | 151.74 | 80.57 | 2400.08 | 1136.67 |
| EV/EBITDA | 389.57 | 188.17 | 81.15 | 1287.79 | 459.62 |
| P/FCF | 34.98 | 38.36 | 23.01 | 41.93 | 8.12 |
| P/FFO | 644.08 | 139.82 | 45.03 | 2643.20 | 1121.84 |
| P/AFFO | 109.71 | 106.13 | 47.64 | 175.36 | 63.93 |
| P/B Ratio | 58.72 | 31.25 | 13.78 | 196.35 | 64.24 |
| P/S Ratio | 11.80 | 12.61 | 7.50 | 16.05 | 3.46 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates PANW's fair value at $201.24 vs the current price of $148.92, implying +35.1% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 78/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $201.24 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $93.80 (P10) to $399.22 (P90), with a median of $228.82.
PANW's current P/E of 93.1x compares to the industry median of 22.9x (45 peers in the group). This represents a +307.3% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 131.8x over 3 years. Signal: High Premium.
85 analysts cover PANW with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $211.29 (range: $157.00 — $265.00), implying +41.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (62), Hold (21), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 78/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that PANW's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.6σ, meaning margins are 0.6 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 3-year mean (3.4%), the model estimates fair value drops by 6320.0% to approximately $55. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.