MODEL VERDICT
Palo Alto Networks, Inc. (PANW)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.59 | $181.08 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $178.54 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $167.85 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $164.09 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $155.73 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 12 analyst estimates | $76.89 | -57.5% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $57.07 | -68.5% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $39.36 | -78.3% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 12 industry peers | $113.79 | -37.2% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 6 industry peers | $49.73 | -72.5% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 12 industry peers | $117.00 | -35.4% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 12 industry peers | $72.95 | -59.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 12 industry peers | $73.42 | -59.5% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $37.88 | -79.1% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 12 industry peers | $111.97 | -38.2% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $223.82 | +23.6% | 100% | 78 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 95× | 104× | 113× (Current) | 122× | 131× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $158 | $173 | $188 | $203 | $218 |
| Conservative (7%) | $162 | $177 | $193 | $208 | $223 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $167 | $183 | $199 | $215 | $231 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $173 | $189 | $205 | $222 | $238 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 131.83 | 115.13 | 49.99 | 230.38 | 91.35 |
| EV/EBIT | 696.03 | 151.74 | 80.57 | 2400.08 | 1136.67 |
| EV/EBITDA | 389.57 | 188.17 | 81.15 | 1287.79 | 459.62 |
| P/FCF | 34.98 | 38.36 | 23.01 | 41.93 | 8.12 |
| P/FFO | 644.08 | 139.82 | 45.03 | 2643.20 | 1121.84 |
| P/AFFO | 109.71 | 106.13 | 47.64 | 175.36 | 63.93 |
| P/B Ratio | 58.72 | 31.25 | 13.78 | 196.35 | 64.24 |
| P/S Ratio | 11.80 | 12.61 | 7.50 | 16.05 | 3.46 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates PANW's fair value at $223.82 vs the current price of $181.08, implying +23.6% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 78/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $223.82 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $108.99 (P10) to $414.57 (P90), with a median of $243.60.
PANW's current P/E of 113.2x compares to the industry median of 24.6x (6 peers in the group). This represents a +360.1% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 131.8x over 3 years. Signal: High Premium.
86 analysts cover PANW with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $207.85 (range: $157.00 — $265.00), implying +14.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (63), Hold (21), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 78/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that PANW's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.6σ, meaning margins are 0.6 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 3-year mean (3.4%), the model estimates fair value drops by 6970.0% to approximately $55. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.