MODEL VERDICT
Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $137.19 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $135.24 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $131.41 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $139.51 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $177.49 | Below threshold | -19.5% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 71 analyst estimates | $20.31 | -85.2% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 55 industry peers | $9.83 | -92.8% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 45 industry peers | $14.40 | -89.5% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 67 industry peers | $12.00 | -91.3% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 51 industry peers | $10.17 | -92.6% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 68 industry peers | $13.63 | -90.1% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 78 industry peers | $6.05 | -95.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 79 industry peers | $4.84 | -96.5% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 50 industry peers | $14.66 | -89.3% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 67 industry peers | $12.50 | -90.9% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $55.64 | -59.4% | 100% | 72 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 184× | 201× | 218× (Current) | 235× | 252× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $121 | $132 | $143 | $154 | $165 |
| Conservative (7%) | $123 | $135 | $146 | $158 | $169 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $128 | $139 | $151 | $163 | $175 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $132 | $144 | $156 | $168 | $180 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 289.42 | 282.14 | 188.06 | 398.05 | 105.18 |
| EV/EBIT | 412.21 | 323.87 | 321.62 | 591.15 | 154.97 |
| EV/EBITDA | 368.58 | 315.78 | 253.42 | 536.55 | 148.77 |
| P/FCF | 123.45 | 109.05 | 56.60 | 217.06 | 66.32 |
| P/FFO | 271.26 | 276.14 | 162.25 | 375.38 | 106.65 |
| P/TBV | 24.00 | 15.22 | 5.01 | 60.89 | 20.96 |
| P/AFFO | 280.06 | 281.93 | 173.00 | 385.24 | 106.13 |
| P/B Ratio | 23.97 | 15.22 | 5.01 | 60.89 | 20.96 |
| P/S Ratio | 39.18 | 21.91 | 6.95 | 101.88 | 36.55 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates PLTR's fair value at $55.64 vs the current price of $137.19, implying -59.4% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 72/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $55.64 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $30.29 (P10) to $53.65 (P90), with a median of $41.76.
PLTR's current P/E of 217.8x compares to the industry median of 22.9x (45 peers in the group). This represents a +852.8% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 289.4x over 3 years. Signal: High Premium.
24 analysts cover PLTR with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $198.71 (range: $180.00 — $230.00), implying +44.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (8), Hold (12), Sell (4), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 72/100, based on: data completeness (21), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for PLTR.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.