MODEL VERDICT
CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. (CRWD)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $455.64 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $448.13 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $423.95 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $411.16 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $379.02 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 12 analyst estimates | $131.30 | -71.2% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 9 industry peers | $19.37 | -95.7% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 11 industry peers | $139.93 | -69.3% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 11 industry peers | $154.95 | -66.0% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 12 industry peers | $113.25 | -75.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 12 industry peers | $98.66 | -78.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 12 industry peers | $142.70 | -68.7% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $394.01 | -13.5% | 100% | 67 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA | 898.92 | 943.97 | 563.87 | 1188.92 | 314.95 |
| P/FCF | 600.43 | 89.77 | 54.22 | 3621.28 | 1332.40 |
| P/FFO | 644.49 | 589.31 | 355.37 | 988.79 | 320.30 |
| P/TBV | 52.69 | 52.61 | 39.57 | 61.42 | 8.20 |
| P/B Ratio | 38.78 | 35.67 | 23.05 | 60.74 | 13.34 |
| P/S Ratio | 38.35 | 27.28 | 16.48 | 93.70 | 26.59 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 18 valuation metrics, the model estimates CRWD's fair value at $394.01 vs the current price of $455.64, implying -13.5% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 67/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $394.01 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $118.33 (P10) to $1680.90 (P90), with a median of $518.39.
CRWD's current P/E of -701.0x compares to the industry median of 30.7x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -2384.0% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
65 analysts cover CRWD with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $528.24 (range: $368.00 — $640.00), implying +15.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (49), Hold (14), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 67/100, based on: data completeness (15), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for CRWD.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.