MODEL VERDICT
CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. (CRWD) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.58 | $371.98 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.51 | $388.60 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.34 | $429.64 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.42 | $413.39 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $470.61 | Below threshold | -13.3% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 71 analyst estimates | $58.64 | -84.2% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 67 industry peers | $63.94 | -82.8% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 68 industry peers | $84.58 | -77.3% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 78 industry peers | $74.20 | -80.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 79 industry peers | $51.80 | -86.1% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 67 industry peers | $66.59 | -82.1% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $468.09 | +25.8% | 100% | 67 | UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 685.53 | 98.58 | 54.22 | 3621.28 | 1438.57 |
| P/TBV | 66.99 | 57.71 | 45.65 | 139.68 | 32.58 |
| P/B Ratio | 52.42 | 40.02 | 23.05 | 121.76 | 32.90 |
| P/S Ratio | 39.74 | 29.02 | 16.48 | 93.70 | 25.99 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 15 valuation metrics, the model estimates CRWD's fair value at $468.09 vs the current price of $371.98, implying +25.8% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 67/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $468.09 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $66.14 (P10) to $1532.81 (P90), with a median of $453.43.
CRWD's current P/E of -4726.6x compares to the industry median of 23.0x (45 peers in the group). This represents a -20675.7% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
63 analysts cover CRWD with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $531.69 (range: $353.00 — $706.00), implying +42.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (43), Hold (18), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 67/100, based on: data completeness (15), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for CRWD.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.