MODEL VERDICT
Oracle Corporation (ORCL) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $145.40 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $148.08 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $160.14 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.20 | $159.89 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.21 | $198.52 | Below threshold | -21.1% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 71 analyst estimates | $116.48 | -19.9% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 55 industry peers | $95.96 | -34.0% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 45 industry peers | $99.19 | -31.8% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 51 industry peers | $71.90 | -50.6% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| Peg Ratio 25 industry peers | $40.03 | -72.5% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 78 industry peers | $35.64 | -75.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 79 industry peers | $59.12 | -59.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 50 industry peers | $101.00 | -30.5% | 2% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $98.95 | -31.9% | 100% | 76 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 28× | 31× | 34× (Current) | 37× | 40× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (3%) | $125 | $138 | $152 | $165 | $179 |
| Conservative (5%) | $128 | $141 | $155 | $169 | $182 |
| Base Case (7.1%) | $130 | $144 | $158 | $172 | $186 |
| Bull Case (10%) | $133 | $147 | $162 | $176 | $190 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 30.87 | 33.92 | 17.84 | 44.92 | 11.69 |
| EV/EBIT | 26.30 | 27.12 | 16.26 | 36.75 | 8.47 |
| EV/EBITDA | 19.86 | 19.39 | 14.18 | 27.33 | 5.10 |
| P/FCF | 28.75 | 26.80 | 15.34 | 45.29 | 12.71 |
| P/FFO | 21.09 | 19.96 | 14.12 | 30.01 | 6.29 |
| P/AFFO | 32.16 | 30.60 | 16.02 | 49.29 | 16.19 |
| P/B Ratio | 55.81 | 35.46 | 8.84 | 187.42 | 66.42 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 6.68 | 5.84 | 5.00 | 9.73 | 1.87 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 21 valuation metrics, the model estimates ORCL's fair value at $98.95 vs the current price of $145.40, implying -31.9% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 76/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $98.95 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $82.11 (P10) to $133.50 (P90), with a median of $107.51.
ORCL's current P/E of 33.5x compares to the industry median of 22.9x (45 peers in the group). This represents a +46.6% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 30.9x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
86 analysts cover ORCL with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $295.85 (range: $160.00 — $400.00), implying +103.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (54), Hold (28), Sell (4), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 76/100, based on: data completeness (21), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: ORCL trades at the 7780th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (30.9×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that ORCL's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.3σ, meaning margins are 0.3 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (23.2%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1550.0% to approximately $123. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.