MODEL VERDICT
Comcast Holdings Corp. (CCZ)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.46 | $64.90 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.46 | $64.54 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $65.00 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $66.00 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.40 | $65.00 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA 9 industry peers | $36.34 | -44.0% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $66.31 | +2.2% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 8 industry peers | $58.96 | -9.2% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $76.76 | +18.3% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 8 industry peers | $121.32 | +86.9% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 3 industry peers | $51.92 | -20.0% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 9 industry peers | $81.43 | +25.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 9 industry peers | $49.16 | -24.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $66.31 | +2.2% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 8 industry peers | $58.99 | -9.1% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $73.75 | +13.6% | 100% | 83 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 8× | 10× | 12× (Current) | 14× | 16× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (8%) | $46 | $58 | $70 | $81 | $93 |
| Conservative (12%) | $48 | $60 | $73 | $85 | $97 |
| Base Case (18.8%) | $51 | $64 | $77 | $90 | $102 |
| Bull Case (25%) | $54 | $68 | $81 | $95 | $108 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 22.36 | 20.86 | 11.13 | 46.51 | 11.80 |
| EV/EBIT | 16.18 | 16.31 | 7.26 | 22.73 | 5.14 |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.19 | 11.01 | 5.94 | 12.18 | 2.21 |
| P/FCF | 17.60 | 18.33 | 10.17 | 21.28 | 3.88 |
| P/FFO | 9.98 | 10.55 | 6.21 | 12.99 | 2.30 |
| P/AFFO | 21.85 | 18.69 | 9.23 | 45.97 | 11.49 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.89 | 3.00 | 2.29 | 3.27 | 0.31 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.22 | 2.05 | 1.80 | 2.69 | 0.36 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 25 valuation metrics, the model estimates CCZ's fair value at $73.75 vs the current price of $64.90, implying +13.6% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 83/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $73.75 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $65.47 (P10) to $85.72 (P90), with a median of $75.46.
CCZ's current P/E of 12.0x compares to the industry median of 12.3x (6 peers in the group). This represents a -2.1% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 22.4x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
No analyst coverage data is available for CCZ.
The model confidence score is 83/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that CCZ's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.0σ, meaning margins are 1.0 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (11.5%), the model estimates fair value drops by 4250.0% to approximately $93. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.