MODEL VERDICT
CDW Corporation (CDW)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.53 | $136.03 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.51 | $135.32 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.50 | $133.96 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.52 | $129.56 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.28 | $125.53 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $143.42 | +5.4% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $141.11 | +3.7% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $174.36 | +28.2% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 6 industry peers | $95.18 | -30.0% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 8 industry peers | $159.31 | +17.1% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 6 industry peers | $83.03 | -39.0% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 3 industry peers | $137.45 | +1.0% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $113.79 | -16.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $132.77 | -2.4% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $169.67 | +24.7% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 6 industry peers | $87.70 | -35.5% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $160.38 | +17.9% | 100% | 91 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 13× | 15× | 17× (Current) | 19× | 21× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (3%) | $108 | $125 | $142 | $159 | $175 |
| Conservative (5%) | $111 | $128 | $145 | $162 | $179 |
| Base Case (8.2%) | $114 | $131 | $149 | $166 | $184 |
| Bull Case (11%) | $117 | $135 | $153 | $171 | $189 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 24.37 | 24.18 | 16.86 | 29.09 | 4.52 |
| EV/EBIT | 19.58 | 19.22 | 13.99 | 24.76 | 3.61 |
| EV/EBITDA | 16.62 | 15.06 | 13.86 | 22.27 | 3.07 |
| P/FCF | 23.39 | 20.38 | 16.50 | 42.03 | 8.90 |
| P/FFO | 19.75 | 19.22 | 15.72 | 24.39 | 3.41 |
| P/AFFO | 22.63 | 22.20 | 18.07 | 27.50 | 4.29 |
| P/B Ratio | 17.51 | 15.17 | 4.67 | 40.77 | 11.55 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.14 | 1.12 | 0.80 | 1.45 | 0.22 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates CDW's fair value at $160.38 vs the current price of $136.03, implying +17.9% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 91/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $160.38 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $138.14 (P10) to $166.33 (P90), with a median of $151.96.
CDW's current P/E of 16.8x compares to the industry median of 21.6x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -22.0% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 24.4x over 7 years. Signal: Discount.
18 analysts cover CDW with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $162.40 (range: $141.00 — $185.00), implying +19.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (10), Hold (7), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 91/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that CDW's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.1σ, meaning margins are 0.1 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (4.7%), the model estimates fair value drops by 4290.0% to approximately $194. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.