MODEL VERDICT
Celanese Corporation (CE)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.51 | $69.24 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.51 | $65.00 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.51 | $62.03 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.51 | $64.73 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.51 | $63.13 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $76.56 | +10.6% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $42.67 | -38.4% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 10 industry peers | $36.09 | -47.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 10 industry peers | $124.33 | +79.6% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $105.49 | +52.3% | 100% | 48 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 10.06 | 8.67 | 5.90 | 18.00 | 4.68 |
| EV/EBIT | 14.19 | 14.48 | 7.80 | 21.51 | 5.03 |
| EV/EBITDA | 33.62 | 13.35 | 9.68 | 155.18 | 53.68 |
| P/FCF | 13.37 | 14.20 | 8.75 | 15.73 | 2.45 |
| P/FFO | 7.73 | 6.58 | 4.71 | 12.70 | 3.06 |
| P/TBV | 8.14 | 7.88 | 6.39 | 10.15 | 1.89 |
| P/AFFO | 10.15 | 8.08 | 6.11 | 18.31 | 4.82 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.84 | 2.25 | 1.04 | 5.30 | 1.62 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.61 | 1.55 | 0.49 | 2.72 | 0.87 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 10 valuation metrics, the model estimates CE's fair value at $105.49 vs the current price of $69.24, implying +52.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 48/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $105.49 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $31.36 (P10) to $54.31 (P90), with a median of $42.64.
CE's current P/E of -6.5x compares to the industry median of 25.2x (4 peers in the group). This represents a -125.8% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 10.1x over 5 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
37 analysts cover CE with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $65.40 (range: $50.00 — $86.00), implying -5.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (10), Hold (23), Sell (4), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 48/100, based on: data completeness (12), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --15 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for CE.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.