MODEL VERDICT
CECO Environmental Corp. (CECO)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $74.30 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.10 | $64.89 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.10 | $65.27 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.11 | $64.69 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.10 | $64.23 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 3 analyst estimates | $44.69 | -39.9% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 3 industry peers | $43.14 | -41.9% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 1 industry peers | $40.48 | -45.5% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 3 industry peers | $32.47 | -56.3% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| Peg Ratio 1 industry peers | $94.34 | +27.0% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 4 industry peers | $79.59 | +7.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 4 industry peers | $74.50 | +0.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 1 industry peers | $41.08 | -44.7% | 2% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $53.85 | -27.5% | 100% | 67 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 46× | 50× | 54× (Current) | 58× | 62× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (17%) | $74 | $80 | $87 | $93 | $100 |
| Conservative (28%) | $81 | $88 | $95 | $102 | $109 |
| Base Case (42.9%) | $90 | $98 | $106 | $114 | $121 |
| Bull Case (58%) | $100 | $108 | $117 | $125 | $134 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 61.18 | 43.69 | 23.36 | 155.36 | 46.04 |
| EV/EBIT | 26.19 | 22.21 | 17.57 | 42.03 | 9.55 |
| EV/EBITDA | 19.66 | 17.36 | 12.93 | 28.49 | 6.47 |
| P/FCF | 143.80 | 81.74 | 15.56 | 519.38 | 193.92 |
| P/FFO | 23.94 | 23.05 | 13.63 | 39.26 | 9.07 |
| P/AFFO | 38.80 | 28.80 | 16.58 | 106.69 | 31.26 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.09 | 3.02 | 1.08 | 6.78 | 2.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.49 | 1.32 | 0.68 | 2.83 | 0.78 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 21 valuation metrics, the model estimates CECO's fair value at $53.85 vs the current price of $74.30, implying -27.5% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 67/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $53.85 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $39.92 (P10) to $59.72 (P90), with a median of $49.39.
CECO's current P/E of 54.2x compares to the industry median of 29.5x (1 peers in the group). This represents a +83.5% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 61.2x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
15 analysts cover CECO with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $86.20 (range: $73.00 — $103.00), implying +16.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (10), Hold (5), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 67/100, based on: data completeness (21), peer quality (22), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: --10 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that CECO's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.3σ, meaning margins are 0.3 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (6.6%), the model estimates fair value drops by 25110.0% to approximately $261. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.